Penn State @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

3-4 · Power #17

final

Final

Ohio State

7-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -17.5

✓ OSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 16–34 OSU

✓ OSU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -20.5

CloseOSU -17.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -20.5

3 → PSU

CloseOSU -17.5

3 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open43.5

▲ 2

Close45.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -20.5 · closed OSU -17.5 · moved 3 toward PSUmodel OSU -19.5

model OSU -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (117 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -20.5

CloseOSU -17.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against PSU, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 16.9; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs IOWA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-17	35–7	W	U46
Close	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Close	ORE vs WASH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	49–21	W	O50.5
Loose	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & spread	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Loose	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · loose	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Loose	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Loose	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-21	27–25	L	O50
Loose	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Loose	MICH vs WIS 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	24–10	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLLLW	1-6	14%	1-1	1-0
OSU LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	6-1

Venue/role: PSU away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OOOUO	5-2	71%	3-4
OSU UUOUU	2-5	29%	7-0

Went over in Q4. Of 407 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
OSU	10-0 100%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PSU 0–2 OSU OSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · OSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Ohio State 20 @ Penn State 13	OSU -3.5	OSU W
Oct 21 2023	Penn State 12 @ Ohio State 20	OSU -4	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+11.5▼ 8.9#27

OSU+26.4 →+27.1▲ 0.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PSU

Longer bar = better

OSU

#57

Offense

OSU better ▶

#13

#32

Defense

OSU better ▶

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.7 #24

64 plays #108

Pace

Even

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	PSU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #39	5.9 #1	OSU
Yards / play	5.57 #81	3.81 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	−0.20 #2	OSU
Success rate	46% #33	35% #10	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #21	19.4 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.91 #16	4.63 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #9	0.00 #26	Even
Success rate	54% #4	40% #55	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.4 #82	8.3 #75	13.7 #82	7.6 #37	11.7 #4	19.3 #8
OSU allowed	0.4 #1	1.3 #1	1.7 #1	2.3 #13	1.9 #2	4.1 #3

OSU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.3 #27	8.9 #66	17.1 #42	8.9 #20	10.4 #7	19.3 #8
PSU allowed	2.3 #14	5.7 #36	8.0 #16	2.9 #21	6.7 #73	9.6 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.