Indiana @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

9-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

3-5 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

IU -13.5

✓ PSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 34–20 PSU

✓ IU (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -13.5

CloseIU -13.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -13.5

no move

CloseIU -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -13.5 · unchangedmodel IU -13.5 matches the line

model IU -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 46% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -13.5

CloseIU -13.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 13.5-point road favorite at PSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 13.7; 50.9 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU @ ILL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-15	34–16	W	U51.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Close	ALA @ SC 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	29–22	L	O47.5
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LWLWW	5-3	63%	2-1	4-3
PSU LLLWL	1-7	13%	0-5	1-1

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UUOOO	6-3	67%	9-0
PSU OOUOO	6-2	75%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 590 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	9-1 90%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
PSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IU 3–25 PSU PSU leads · 28 games since 1993 · IU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Indiana 24 @ Penn State 33	PSU -31	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+25.9▲ 12.5#2

PSU+20.4 →+10.9▼ 9.5#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

PSU

Offense

◀ IU better

#63

Defense

◀ IU better

#53

+1.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ IU better

+0.3 #53

70 plays #30

Pace

◀ IU faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.4 #1	21.8 #43	IU
Yards / play	7.19 #7	5.07 #34	IU
PPA / play	+0.30 #10	+0.07 #56	IU
Success rate	54% #3	42% #78	IU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	PSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #50	10.8 #3	IU
Yards / play	5.31 #98	4.54 #15	IU
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	−0.10 #5	IU
Success rate	45% #36	32% #5	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	11.2 #7	12.9 #7	24.1 #3	13.6 #1	8.8 #27	22.3 #1
PSU allowed	2.9 #18	6.3 #45	9.1 #22	4.3 #45	6.8 #77	11.0 #55

PSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.8 #102	9.0 #61	13.8 #81	6.6 #59	10.3 #8	16.9 #26
IU allowed	3.3 #28	3.2 #6	6.6 #8	1.8 #6	2.4 #3	4.2 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.