Miami (OH) @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Tue, Nov 4, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

5-3 · Power #91

final

Final

Ohio

5-3 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -2.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 23–26 OHIO

✓ OHIO (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -3.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -3.5

1 → M-OH

CloseOHIO -2.5

1 pt toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -3.5 · closed OHIO -2.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel OHIO -6.5

model OHIO -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (283 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (97 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -3.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 2.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 24–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.6 against an average line of 2.7; 50.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	SDSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	27–24	W	O47.5
Very close	SHSU vs WKU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	14–31	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	1-2
OHIO LWLWL	5-3	63%	3-1	2-3

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UUUOO	4-4	50%	5-3
OHIO OOUOU	4-4	50%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
OHIO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

M-OH 2–1 OHIO M-OH leads · 3 games since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Ohio 38 @ Miami (OH) 3	M-OH -2.5	OHIO W
Oct 19 2024	Ohio 20 @ Miami (OH) 30	M-OH -3.5	M-OH W
Oct 28 2023	Miami (OH) 30 @ Ohio 16	OHIO -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−6.0▼ 3.2#89

OHIO−3.2 →−2.2▲ 1.0#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

M-OH

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#68

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#48

#44

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#87

+0.4 #41

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

0.0 #71

62 plays #125

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #80	24.8 #74	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #55	6.26 #124	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	+0.09 #70	Even
Success rate	43% #72	43% #81	Even

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #64	21.4 #39	M-OH
Yards / play	6.32 #32	4.90 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #46	+0.04 #40	Even
Success rate	44% #50	41% #71	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.8 #100	7.0 #92	11.8 #101	8.5 #25	5.8 #89	14.3 #50
OHIO allowed	6.9 #103	6.5 #55	13.4 #77	3.6 #29	7.8 #106	11.4 #58

OHIO scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.9 #55	9.5 #54	16.4 #51	6.8 #58	6.1 #80	12.9 #71
M-OH allowed	3.0 #21	6.9 #65	9.9 #39	3.9 #32	7.6 #103	11.5 #63

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.