Northern Illinois @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Wed, Nov 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F13 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

2-6 · Power #124

final

Final

Toledo

4-4 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -15.5

✓ TOL W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 11–28 TOL

✓ TOL (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -14.5

CloseTOL -15.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -14.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -15.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -14.5 · closed TOL -15.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -20

model TOL -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 45% (102 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -14.5

CloseTOL -15.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 15.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 42–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 16; 50.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Close	JMU vs UL 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & total	-18.5	24–14	L	U45
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	MINN vs NU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-17	31–3	W	U41
Close	NCST vs VT 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13.25	22–21	L	O39
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-14	41–35	L	O47
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	NCST vs BC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-18	20–21	L	P41
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-14	31–0	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LLLLW	2-6	25%	1-3	1-4
TOL LWLWL	5-3	63%	4-0	4-3

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	1-7	13%	2-6
TOL UUOOU	4-4	50%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
TOL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NIU 0–2 TOL TOL leads · 2 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Toledo 13 @ Northern Illinois 6	NIU -3.5	TOL W
Sep 30 2023	Northern Illinois 33 @ Toledo 35	TOL -13.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−5.3 →−13.4▼ 8.1#117

TOL−4.5 →+1.8▲ 6.3#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NIU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#135

Offense

TOL better ▶

#54

#60

Defense

TOL better ▶

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.6 #28

61 plays #127

Pace

TOL faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	NIU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	13.4 #135	16.0 #10	TOL
Yards / play	4.50 #135	3.94 #3	TOL
PPA / play	−0.08 #133	−0.07 #9	TOL
Success rate	32% #136	36% #12	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #48	22.1 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #33	5.09 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #64	+0.11 #84	Even
Success rate	43% #71	41% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.8 #119	3.0 #134	6.8 #133	3.3 #128	3.4 #128	6.6 #134
TOL allowed	3.0 #22	4.3 #11	7.3 #11	1.6 #5	7.1 #89	8.8 #25

TOL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.4 #40	12.9 #7	20.3 #15	6.9 #52	4.6 #116	11.5 #88
NIU allowed	3.4 #32	5.9 #38	9.3 #26	4.8 #49	8.1 #111	12.9 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.