Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

3-6 · Power #120

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

2-7 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -3.5

✓ EMU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 24–27 EMU

✓ EMU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2.5

CloseEMU -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -2.5

1 → EMU

CloseEMU -3.5

1 pt toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -2.5 · closed EMU -3.5 · moved 1 toward EMUmodel BGSU -0.5

model BGSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (284 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2.5

CloseEMU -3.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 3.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 27–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 3.3; 50.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–21	L	U53.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	MOST vs FIU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	28–21	W	U50
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Close	USA vs UL 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	22–31	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LWLLL	4-5	44%	2-2	4-1
EMU LWWLW	5-4	56%	3-1	0-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OOUUU	4-5	44%	3-6
EMU UOUOU	5-4	56%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
EMU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−12.5▼ 8.3#115

EMU−11.0 →−15.5▼ 4.5#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BGSU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#129

Offense

EMU better ▶

#76

#85

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#127

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #71

64 plays #100

Pace

Even

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #125	32.9 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.74 #128	6.61 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	+0.27 #133	Even
Success rate	36% #129	46% #120	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #94	25.7 #82	Even
Yards / play	5.63 #75	5.91 #99	EMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.12 #84	EMU
Success rate	42% #77	42% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.7 #119	4.4 #128	8.1 #127	3.3 #125	6.8 #66	10.1 #107
EMU allowed	8.6 #125	8.0 #80	16.6 #116	6.6 #99	9.0 #124	15.6 #122

EMU scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	4.8 #100	8.3 #74	13.1 #86	1.6 #135	8.8 #28	10.3 #103
BGSU allowed	5.4 #66	8.4 #88	13.9 #80	7.9 #122	3.9 #18	11.8 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.