Louisiana @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

2-6 · Power #114

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

2-6 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

USA -3.5

✓ UL W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 25–29 USA

✗ USA (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -5.5

CloseUSA -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -5.5

2 → UL

CloseUSA -3.5

2 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -5.5 · closed USA -3.5 · moved 2 toward ULmodel USA -6.5

model USA -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (276 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -5.5

CloseUSA -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 3.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 31–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.6; 51.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	30–34	L	O52.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWWLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3
USA LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OOUUO	4-4	50%	2-6
USA OUOUO	5-3	63%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 564 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
USA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UL 1–1 USA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · USA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	South Alabama 24 @ Louisiana 22	UL -6.5	USA W
Oct 28 2023	Louisiana 33 @ South Alabama 20	USA -11.5	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−12.1▼ 9.5#112

USA−2.3 →−8.4▼ 6.1#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

USA

#105

Offense

USA better ▶

#86

#107

Defense

Even

#104

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+0.3 #60

63 plays #119

Pace

USA faster ▶

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #100	29.5 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #96	5.65 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.21 #123	Even
Success rate	39% #114	45% #107	Even

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #86	30.3 #112	USA
Yards / play	5.53 #85	5.77 #92	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.15 #100	Even
Success rate	42% #89	47% #123	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UL scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.3 #111	8.9 #66	13.1 #90	2.8 #130	6.0 #83	8.8 #121
USA allowed	7.0 #103	6.9 #64	13.9 #81	6.4 #93	8.4 #115	14.8 #115

USA scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	8.3 #26	4.6 #125	12.9 #93	5.0 #88	7.4 #59	12.4 #76
UL allowed	4.8 #55	12.5 #134	17.3 #123	6.0 #86	5.8 #52	11.8 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.