North Carolina @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Fri, Oct 31, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

North Carolina

2-5 · Power #89

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

3-5 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

SYR -1.5

✓ UNC W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 23–26 SYR

✗ SYR (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -1.5

CloseSYR -1.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -1.5

no move

CloseSYR -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -1.5 · unchangedmodel SYR -7.5

model SYR -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (170 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -1.5

CloseSYR -1.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 1.5-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 27–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.6; 46.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–20	L	U42
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	CSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	22–19	L	U46.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Very close	IU vs MSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–24	L	U47
Very close	NU vs PUR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–0	W	U47
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	14–41	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-3
SYR WLWLL	3-5	38%	1-3	1-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UUOUU	2-5	29%	2-5
SYR OUUUO	4-4	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SYR	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNC 1–0 SYR UNC leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Syracuse 7 @ North Carolina 40	UNC -9	UNC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+2.3 →−6.6▼ 8.9#92

SYR+5.9 →−2.1▼ 8.0#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNC

Longer bar = better

SYR

#127

Offense

SYR better ▶

#99

#57

Defense

◀ UNC better

#115

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #124

59 plays #134

Pace

SYR faster ▶

73 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #126	31.3 #116	Even
Yards / play	4.73 #130	6.06 #111	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #128	+0.18 #110	Even
Success rate	37% #123	46% #121	Even

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	SYR off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #85	23.9 #63	UNC
Yards / play	5.46 #90	5.02 #34	UNC
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.12 #83	UNC
Success rate	40% #104	40% #46	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	5.3 #85	4.7 #124	10.0 #114	2.9 #129	4.6 #117	7.4 #131
SYR allowed	6.3 #87	12.1 #132	18.4 #124	6.0 #83	6.9 #78	12.9 #86

SYR scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.6 #101	7.6 #85	12.3 #98	3.8 #120	8.5 #39	12.3 #79
UNC allowed	8.9 #128	6.1 #46	15.0 #94	5.0 #61	2.9 #6	7.9 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.