Duke @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Duke

4-3 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

3-4 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

CLEM -4.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 25–30 CLEM

✗ CLEM (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -3.5

CloseCLEM -4.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -3.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -4.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -3.5 · closed CLEM -4.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -4.5 matches the line

model CLEM -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (194 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -3.5

CloseCLEM -4.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 4.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 46–45 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 5; 46.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Close	JMU vs GASO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	41–13	W	U59.5
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	TULN vs ECU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	26–19	P	U53.5
Close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	41–13	W	U62.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	DUKE vs GT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	18–27	L	U60.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE LWWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	0-1
CLEM LLWWL	2-5	29%	0-4	2-5

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OOUOU	5-2	71%	4-3
CLEM UOOUO	3-4	43%	3-4

Went over in Q2. Of 499 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
CLEM	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 1–0 CLEM DUKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · DUKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 4 2023	Clemson 7 @ Duke 28	CLEM -13	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+7.0▲ 5.1#41

CLEM+15.2 →+8.7▼ 6.5#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

DUKE

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#23

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#70

#85

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#39

+0.6 #38

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.6 #114

67 plays #68

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #40	20.9 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.93 #13	5.01 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #22	+0.06 #49	DUKE
Success rate	49% #17	39% #37	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #81	25.7 #83	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #58	5.80 #97	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.11 #81	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	44% #59	41% #67	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.3 #110	12.1 #13	16.4 #53	7.3 #42	10.1 #12	17.4 #19
CLEM allowed	4.7 #53	7.4 #81	12.1 #67	3.4 #30	5.3 #43	8.7 #26

CLEM scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	6.9 #58	8.9 #66	15.7 #62	4.9 #93	5.4 #99	10.3 #107
DUKE allowed	7.4 #109	6.7 #63	14.1 #88	4.3 #46	7.3 #87	11.6 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.