Wake Forest @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F0 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

5-2 · Power #53

final

Final

Florida State

3-4 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -12.5

✓ FSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 19–32 FSU

✓ FSU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -7.5

CloseFSU -12.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -7.5

5 → FSU

CloseFSU -12.5

5 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -7.5 · closed FSU -12.5 · moved 5 toward FSUmodel FSU -14

model FSU -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 54% (98 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (140 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -7.5

CloseFSU -12.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 12.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 42–7; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 12.7; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Close	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Close	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	38–28	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWWWW	5-2	71%	2-0	3-1
FSU WLLLL	3-4	43%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOOOU	4-3	57%	5-2
FSU OOUOU	5-2	71%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 0–1 FSU FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Florida State 41 @ Wake Forest 16	FSU -21	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →+1.3▲ 5.9#62

FSU0.0 →+11.9▲ 11.9#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WAKE

Longer bar = better

FSU

#92

Offense

FSU better ▶

#16

#12

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#58

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #88

65 plays #87

Pace

FSU faster ▶

74 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	WAKE off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #77	22.6 #54	FSU
Yards / play	6.03 #52	5.01 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.11 #76	FSU
Success rate	36% #130	41% #66	FSU

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #9	18.9 #26	Even
Yards / play	7.09 #10	4.17 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #17	−0.09 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #26	32% #5	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	9.0 #17	9.3 #60	18.3 #31	5.3 #90	2.3 #135	7.6 #130
FSU allowed	5.4 #69	5.4 #30	10.9 #43	5.4 #69	4.7 #29	10.1 #41

FSU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	10.4 #8	13.3 #5	23.7 #6	7.4 #38	8.1 #43	15.6 #37
WAKE allowed	4.3 #44	2.7 #3	7.0 #10	5.6 #73	5.3 #45	10.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.