Louisville @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

6-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

3-5 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

LOU -10.5

✓ LOU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 32–21 VT

✓ LOU (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -10.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -10.5

no move

CloseLOU -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -10.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -11.5

model LOU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 50% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -10.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 10.5-point road favorite at VT, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 28–16; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.5 against an average line of 10.9; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	SMU @ UVA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-10.5	33–7	W	U54.5
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	KSU @ OKST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	21–29	L	U54
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LWLWL	2-5	29%	2-0	1-5
VT –WLLW	2-5	29%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; VT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOUUO	4-3	57%	6-1
VT UUOUO	4-4	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
VT	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 1–0 VT LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Virginia Tech 3 @ Louisville 34	LOU -9	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+11.2 →+12.0▲ 0.8#23

VT+6.8 →−1.5▼ 8.3#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LOU

Longer bar = better

#54

Offense

◀ LOU better

#74

#19

Defense

◀ LOU better

#112

+0.6 #37

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.5 #112

67 plays #62

Pace

Even

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #32	29.9 #109	LOU
Yards / play	6.16 #39	5.92 #101	LOU
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.26 #129	LOU
Success rate	43% #70	45% #109	LOU

When VT has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	VT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #85	21.4 #45	LOU
Yards / play	5.59 #78	4.55 #16	LOU
PPA / play	+0.15 #57	−0.14 #4	LOU
Success rate	43% #74	34% #9	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.0 #31	11.1 #29	19.1 #23	5.3 #85	9.7 #20	15.0 #41
VT allowed	5.3 #68	10.1 #116	15.4 #97	5.0 #62	8.6 #119	13.6 #106

VT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.9 #92	6.8 #100	11.6 #105	6.3 #66	5.6 #94	11.9 #80
LOU allowed	6.3 #89	4.9 #20	11.1 #49	3.9 #34	5.6 #50	9.4 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.