Boston College @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

1-6 · Power #84

final

Final

Louisville

5-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -25.5

✓ BC W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 16–41 LOU

✓ LOU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -24.5

CloseLOU -25.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -24.5

1 → LOU

CloseLOU -25.5

1 pt toward Louisville

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -24.5 · closed LOU -25.5 · moved 1 toward LOUmodel LOU -22.5

model LOU -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 48% (61 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (214 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -24.5

CloseLOU -25.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 25.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 38–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.2 against an average line of 24.9; 56.8 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Very close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Very close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5
Very close	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-3
LOU LLWLW	2-4	33%	0-4	1-4

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OUOUO	5-2	71%	1-6
LOU UOOUU	3-3	50%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 515 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
LOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BC 7–11 LOU LOU leads · 18 games since 1986 · LOU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2024	Louisville 31 @ Boston College 27	LOU -7.5	BC W
Sep 23 2023	Boston College 28 @ Louisville 56	LOU -14	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC+1.8 →−5.6▼ 7.4#86

LOU+11.2 →+12.4▲ 1.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

LOU

#71

Offense

Even

#63

#98

Defense

LOU better ▶

#18

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.7 #31

66 plays #72

Pace

LOU faster ▶

68 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	BC off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #78	21.0 #44	LOU
Yards / play	5.61 #80	4.59 #17	LOU
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	−0.14 #3	LOU
Success rate	43% #69	33% #7	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #37	33.9 #127	LOU
Yards / play	5.82 #64	5.77 #96	LOU
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	+0.17 #106	LOU
Success rate	44% #65	41% #64	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BC scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	5.3 #84	10.3 #38	15.6 #63	3.9 #116	5.9 #88	9.7 #112
LOU allowed	6.8 #99	4.5 #15	11.3 #50	3.3 #28	5.3 #45	8.7 #26

LOU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	8.2 #30	10.7 #34	18.8 #29	5.0 #87	9.7 #20	14.7 #47
BC allowed	7.1 #106	11.9 #131	19.0 #129	6.4 #101	6.3 #65	12.7 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.