Middle Tennessee @ Delaware: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Wed, Oct 22, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Delaware · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-5 · Power #128

final

Final

Delaware

3-3 · Power #117

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEL -9.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 22–32 DEL

✓ DEL (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -10.5

CloseDEL -9.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEL -10.5

1 → MTSU

CloseDEL -9.5

1 pt toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open52.5

▲ 3

Close55.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEL -10.5 · closed DEL -9.5 · moved 1 toward MTSUmodel DEL -11

model DEL -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (127 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (241 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -10.5

CloseDEL -9.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEL as a 9.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEL won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 9.3; 58 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs EMU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	31–30	L	O53.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Close	ARMY vs MASS 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	14–21	L	U49
Close	OHIO vs AKR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	55–34	W	O59
Close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	40–6	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LWLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
DEL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; DEL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OUOUU	2-4	33%	1-5
DEL UOUUO	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 483 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
DELlast 7	3-4 43%	2-5 29%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−18.0 →−19.0▼ 1.0#131

DEL−22.6 →−11.9▲ 10.7#113

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MTSU

Longer bar = better

DEL

#117

Offense

DEL better ▶

#54

#107

Defense

Even

#103

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−0.5 #109

65 plays #92

Pace

DEL faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #129	28.3 #100	DEL
Yards / play	4.97 #120	5.78 #96	DEL
PPA / play	0.00 #123	+0.24 #128	Even
Success rate	41% #97	43% #87	Even

When DEL has the ball

Advantage: DEL offense

	DEL off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #69	29.5 #106	DEL
Yards / play	5.97 #53	5.99 #112	DEL
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	+0.20 #118	DEL
Success rate	46% #41	43% #92	DEL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	3.8 #116	6.2 #108	10.0 #116	2.5 #132	4.5 #112	7.0 #131
DEL allowed	5.2 #68	8.5 #96	13.7 #86	9.2 #126	5.0 #37	14.2 #106

DEL scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	4.0 #108	12.0 #20	16.0 #58	4.5 #102	7.3 #63	11.8 #88
MTSU allowed	9.3 #128	8.3 #92	17.7 #124	3.3 #28	8.5 #115	11.8 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.