Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Wed, Oct 8, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

2-3 · Power #112

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-4 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

MOST -2.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 27–25 MTSU

✓ MOST (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -2.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMOST -2.5

no move

CloseMOST -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MOST -2.5 · unchangedmodel MOST -2

model MOST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (190 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMOST -2.5

CloseMOST -2.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MOST as a 2.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MOST won 22–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3.4; 60.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Very close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5
Close	MRSH @ MTSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	42–28	W	O46.5
Close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-0
MTSU LLWLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-3

Venue/role: MOST away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3
MTSU UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOSTlast 7	2-5 29%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
MTSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−21.0 →−14.4▲ 6.6#123

MTSU−18.0 →−18.6▼ 0.6#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MOST

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#91

Offense

◀ MOST better

#123

#126

Defense

Even

#113

−0.2 #79

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.2 #60

64 plays #105

Pace

Even

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: MOST offense

	MOST off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #107	31.0 #117	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #70	6.15 #117	MOST
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.22 #117	MOST
Success rate	38% #122	44% #99	MTSU

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #131	31.6 #119	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #122	6.52 #128	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #124	+0.26 #127	Even
Success rate	39% #113	48% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	6.8 #59	7.4 #89	14.2 #77	4.8 #88	2.6 #128	7.4 #125
MTSU allowed	11.2 #130	6.8 #57	18.0 #120	3.4 #31	9.6 #128	13.0 #92

MTSU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.0 #111	5.4 #113	9.4 #118	3.0 #124	4.0 #115	7.0 #129
MOST allowed	2.8 #29	13.8 #136	16.6 #110	7.6 #114	7.4 #89	15.0 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.