Alabama @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

4-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Missouri

5-0 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

ALA -3.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 28–25 MIZ

✓ ALA (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -5.5

CloseALA -3.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -5.5

2 → MIZ

CloseALA -3.5

2 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -5.5 · closed ALA -3.5 · moved 2 toward MIZmodel ALA -4

model ALA -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (175 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (157 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -5.5

CloseALA -3.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.4; 48.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	WASH @ MD 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–20	L	U52.5
Close	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-6	20–28	L	O45
Close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–13	W	U47.5
Loose	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Loose	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Loose	UGA @ MISS 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2	10–28	L	U55
Loose	MIA @ FSU 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	28–22	W	U54.5
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	16–31	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA LWWWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-1
MIZ WWWLL	3-2	60%	3-2	—

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-1
MIZ OOOOU	4-1	80%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 527 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MIZ	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 1–0 MIZ ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Missouri 0 @ Alabama 34	ALA -16.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+23.2▲ 2.2#2

MIZ+10.7 →+17.0▲ 6.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ALA

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#25

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#11

#47

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#12

+1.6 #2

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

0.0 #70

68 plays #48

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

80 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #33	14.6 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #24	4.04 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #12	−0.04 #20	Even
Success rate	48% #32	29% #3	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	45.2 #7	16.0 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #21	5.27 #57	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	+0.06 #56	MIZ
Success rate	55% #3	40% #56	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.4 #30	13.2 #18	21.6 #21	6.6 #60	8.2 #45	14.8 #50
MIZ allowed	5.4 #80	4.8 #26	10.2 #47	1.8 #10	2.6 #8	4.4 #5

MIZ scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.6 #28	15.0 #6	23.6 #13	9.6 #19	12.0 #6	21.6 #7
ALA allowed	2.8 #29	6.2 #49	9.0 #33	4.2 #50	2.8 #12	7.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.