Washington @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Washington

3-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-0 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

WASH -5.5

✓ MD W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 30–24 MD

✓ WASH (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -5.5

CloseWASH -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWASH -5.5

no move

CloseWASH -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WASH -5.5 · unchangedmodel WASH -5

model WASH -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (112 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWASH -5.5

CloseWASH -5.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 5.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.7 against an average line of 5.4; 53.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	20–33	L	U54
Very close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-7	31–14	W	U53
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-1
MD WLLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OOOU	3-1	75%	3-1
MD UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MD	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WASH 2–0 MD WASH leads · 2 games since 1982 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+8.0 →+13.2▲ 5.2#20

MD+2.1 →+4.7▲ 2.6#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WASH

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ WASH better

#67

#61

Defense

MD better ▶

+1.3 #10

Turnovers

Even

+1.8 #1

64 plays #103

Pace

MD faster ▶

67 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #13	10.8 #7	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #16	4.06 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #13	−0.26 #3	Even
Success rate	52% #15	28% #4	Even

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #55	19.8 #46	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #91	4.79 #33	WASH
PPA / play	+0.21 #47	+0.08 #71	MD
Success rate	43% #75	43% #93	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	8.8 #30	12.0 #28	20.8 #27	9.5 #21	13.0 #3	22.5 #4
MD allowed	1.8 #15	0.8 #1	2.5 #4	4.0 #47	4.3 #31	8.3 #32

MD scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.5 #37	15.8 #9	24.3 #14	4.0 #108	4.3 #113	8.3 #122
WASH allowed	2.5 #26	7.8 #89	10.3 #55	7.0 #108	2.5 #8	9.5 #47

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.