Western Kentucky @ Delaware: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Fri, Oct 3, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Delaware · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

4-1 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Delaware

3-1 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

DEL -2.5

✓ WKU W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 30–31 DEL

✗ DEL (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -2.5

CloseDEL -2.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEL -2.5

no move

CloseDEL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

▲ 1

Close63.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEL -2.5 · unchangedmodel WKU -4

model WKU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (245 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDEL -2.5

CloseDEL -2.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEL as a 2.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 63.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 2.7; 58.7 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–20	L	U62
Very close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	42–21	W	U65
Close	LT vs NMSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–27	L	U55
Close	SHSU vs WKU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	14–31	L	U55
Close	USM vs JXST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	42–25	W	O55.5
Close	WAKE vs UL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	38–41	L	O59.5
Close	UL vs TXST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	34–30	W	U67.5
Close	GAST vs GASO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–33	W	O66.5
Close	ODU vs GASO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	23–28	L	U66

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-1	0-1
DEL LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; DEL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-1
DEL UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
DELlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−6.7▲ 1.6#85

DEL−22.6 →−13.3▲ 9.3#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WKU

Longer bar = better

DEL

#49

Offense

Even

#51

#62

Defense

◀ WKU better

#102

0.0 #75

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #80

72 plays #23

Pace

Even

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #43	26.3 #87	WKU
Yards / play	6.24 #47	5.89 #103	WKU
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.23 #120	WKU
Success rate	46% #44	44% #98	WKU

When DEL has the ball

Even matchup

	DEL off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #67	22.6 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #60	5.79 #97	DEL
PPA / play	+0.25 #33	+0.07 #68	DEL
Success rate	47% #43	36% #23	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	6.2 #72	10.2 #49	16.4 #60	7.6 #50	11.0 #14	18.6 #19
DEL allowed	6.0 #92	6.8 #65	12.8 #80	6.0 #88	6.8 #76	12.8 #92

DEL scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	4.3 #103	14.0 #18	18.3 #43	5.3 #83	6.0 #84	11.3 #90
WKU allowed	6.6 #101	6.6 #64	13.2 #88	7.6 #116	1.8 #6	9.4 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.