Florida International @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Tue, Oct 14, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida International

2-3 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

Western Kentucky

5-1 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

WKU -9.5

✓ FIU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 23–32 WKU

✗ WKU (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -8.5

CloseWKU -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -8.5

1 → WKU

CloseWKU -9.5

1 pt toward Western Kentucky

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -8.5 · closed WKU -9.5 · moved 1 toward WKUmodel WKU -11

model WKU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 45% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -8.5

CloseWKU -9.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 9.5-point home favorite against FIU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 25–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.2 against an average line of 10; 58.8 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs LT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	56–17	W	O54.5
Very close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-11	44–20	W	O59
Very close	UL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	45–38	L	O57.5
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & total	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
WKU WLWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: FIU away, as underdog; WKU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UUOUO	2-3	40%	2-3
WKU OOUUU	3-3	50%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
WKU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FIU 0–1 WKU WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Western Kentucky 41 @ Florida International 28	WKU -11	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−15.0▼ 3.6#121

WKU−8.3 →−8.1▲ 0.2#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FIU

Longer bar = better

WKU

#108

Offense

WKU better ▶

#45

#89

Defense

WKU better ▶

#64

−1.0 #127

Turnovers

WKU better ▶

+0.2 #64

70 plays #34

Pace

Even

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	FIU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #113	22.8 #61	WKU
Yards / play	5.20 #105	5.72 #91	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #125	+0.08 #63	WKU
Success rate	42% #87	39% #42	WKU

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: WKU offense

	WKU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #45	32.0 #123	WKU
Yards / play	6.19 #43	6.09 #115	WKU
PPA / play	+0.19 #46	+0.11 #75	WKU
Success rate	46% #44	40% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	4.2 #106	6.8 #103	11.0 #104	6.2 #63	4.0 #116	10.2 #105
WKU allowed	6.7 #97	7.2 #68	13.8 #83	6.3 #94	2.7 #6	9.0 #32

WKU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	5.2 #84	10.2 #49	15.3 #67	9.2 #19	9.2 #29	18.3 #17
FIU allowed	6.8 #100	10.8 #118	17.6 #119	6.8 #107	7.6 #95	14.4 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.