Tulsa @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Thu, Oct 16, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

2-4 · Power #113

final

Final

East Carolina

3-3 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -16.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 17–34 ECU

✓ ECU (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -16.5

CloseECU -16.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -16.5

no move

CloseECU -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -16.5 · unchangedmodel ECU -21.5

model ECU -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (109 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -16.5

CloseECU -16.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 16.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ECU won 41–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.9 against an average line of 16.3; 56.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Very close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-15	37–10	W	U52
Very close	TROY vs ARST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	37–3	W	U52
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	20–17	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3
ECU WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-0

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UOUUU	1-5	17%	2-4
ECU OUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 496 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ECU	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TLSA 1–1 ECU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ECU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 14 2024	East Carolina 38 @ Tulsa 31	ECU -16.5	TLSA W
Nov 25 2023	Tulsa 29 @ East Carolina 27	ECU -3	TLSA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−18.6 →−14.8▲ 3.8#120

ECU−5.0 →+2.1▲ 7.1#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TLSA

Longer bar = better

ECU

#120

Offense

ECU better ▶

#71

#78

Defense

ECU better ▶

#33

−0.7 #115

Turnovers

ECU better ▶

+0.8 #23

73 plays #18

Pace

ECU faster ▶

77 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	TLSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #122	15.5 #15	ECU
Yards / play	5.05 #115	5.14 #47	ECU
PPA / play	−0.05 #132	+0.04 #43	ECU
Success rate	39% #112	38% #28	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #71	26.3 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #78	5.36 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.09 #68	Even
Success rate	44% #57	44% #103	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	6.3 #66	4.3 #124	10.7 #112	3.5 #118	4.5 #109	8.0 #122
ECU allowed	1.5 #8	6.0 #45	7.5 #18	3.3 #29	4.7 #32	8.0 #21

ECU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	8.0 #34	4.7 #119	12.7 #91	6.7 #59	9.2 #29	15.8 #34
TLSA allowed	4.5 #58	8.7 #98	13.2 #76	6.3 #96	6.8 #84	13.2 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.