Memphis @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F11 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

6-0 · Power #61

final

Final

UAB

2-4 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -23.5

✓ UAB W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 41–18 UAB

✗ MEM (95%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -21.5

CloseMEM -23.5

Total64.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -21.5

2 → MEM

CloseMEM -23.5

2 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open64.5

▼ 5

Close59.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -21.5 · closed MEM -23.5 · moved 2 toward MEMmodel MEM -22.5

model MEM -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (193 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -21.5

CloseMEM -23.5

Total64.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 23.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.8 against an average line of 22; 63.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-22	17–13	L	U54
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Loose	USA @ USM 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-24	35–14	L	U54
Loose	UCF @ USF 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-20	46–39	L	O67.5
Loose	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Loose	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & spread	-26	56–23	W	O50
Loose	WASH @ WSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-21	59–24	W	O52
Loose	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Loose	TULN @ UAB 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-19.5	71–20	W	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	5-0
UAB WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UUOOU	2-4	33%	6-0
UAB OUOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
UAB	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MEM 2–0 UAB MEM leads · 2 games since 2023 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	UAB 18 @ Memphis 53	MEM -17.5	MEM W
Oct 21 2023	Memphis 45 @ UAB 21	MEM -7.5	MEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+7.1▲ 4.9#40

UAB−11.1 →−15.7▼ 4.6#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MEM

Longer bar = better

UAB

#23

Offense

◀ MEM better

#62

#27

Defense

◀ MEM better

#135

+0.8 #25

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−0.7 #116

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ MEM faster

66 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #13	41.3 #137	MEM
Yards / play	6.62 #28	6.66 #130	MEM
PPA / play	+0.27 #24	+0.35 #136	MEM
Success rate	48% #27	50% #136	MEM

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	UAB off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #60	16.2 #15	MEM
Yards / play	6.19 #44	4.90 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	−0.02 #25	MEM
Success rate	44% #63	38% #32	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	9.2 #19	12.2 #22	21.3 #17	8.3 #31	10.8 #11	19.2 #10
UAB allowed	13.3 #136	12.0 #128	25.3 #136	8.3 #121	7.7 #100	16.0 #123

UAB scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.2 #87	11.5 #30	16.7 #51	7.8 #42	5.0 #105	12.8 #73
MEM allowed	3.8 #39	9.0 #99	12.8 #74	1.0 #5	2.3 #4	3.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.