UAB @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff52°F14 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

3-4 · Power #119

final

Final

UConn

5-3 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -10.5

✓ CONN W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 25–36 CONN

✓ CONN (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -11.5

CloseCONN -10.5

Total64.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -11.5

1 → UAB

CloseCONN -10.5

1 pt toward UAB

Total

Open64.5

▼ 3

Close61.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -11.5 · closed CONN -10.5 · moved 1 toward UABmodel CONN -13

model CONN -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (127 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (258 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -11.5

CloseCONN -10.5

Total64.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 10.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 38–19; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 61.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 10.9; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs ARST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-14	55–19	W	O60
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-13.5	45–10	W	U61
Close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-10	34–24	P	U64
Close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-10	25–9	W	U53
Close	UNLV vs AFA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	51–48	L	O65.5
Close	UNLV vs HAW 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	44–20	W	O59
Close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Close	JXST vs FIU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	34–31	L	O58.5
Close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-12	23–22	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB LWLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-2
CONN LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-1	4-3

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UOUOU	4-3	57%	3-4
CONN OUOOO	6-2	75%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 47% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UAB 0–1 CONN CONN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CONN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	UConn 31 @ UAB 23	CONN -7.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.1 →−13.0▼ 1.9#114

CONN−4.2 →−4.0▲ 0.2#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UAB

Longer bar = better

CONN

#51

Offense

CONN better ▶

#32

#133

Defense

CONN better ▶

#81

−0.7 #118

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

+0.9 #14

66 plays #76

Pace

CONN faster ▶

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #60	24.5 #72	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #33	5.40 #65	UAB
PPA / play	+0.15 #55	+0.13 #86	UAB
Success rate	44% #56	44% #101	UAB

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #20	38.9 #134	CONN
Yards / play	6.79 #20	6.58 #129	CONN
PPA / play	+0.27 #18	+0.32 #136	CONN
Success rate	43% #68	50% #134	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.4 #82	11.3 #28	16.7 #49	7.7 #34	5.3 #100	13.0 #68
CONN allowed	3.8 #35	8.5 #92	12.3 #68	2.0 #9	7.0 #81	9.0 #32

CONN scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.8 #36	11.6 #25	19.4 #19	8.9 #16	6.9 #67	15.8 #37
UAB allowed	12.4 #136	11.3 #128	23.7 #135	7.6 #115	7.6 #95	15.1 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.