Air Force @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-4 · Power #95

final

Final

UNLV

5-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -7.5

✓ AFA W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 99 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 28–36 UNLV

✓ UNLV (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -7.5

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total68.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -7.5

no move

CloseUNLV -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open68.5

▼ 2

Close66.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -7.5 · unchangedmodel UNLV -11

model UNLV -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (155 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -7.5

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total68.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 7.5-point home favorite against AFA, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 51–48; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 99 points went over 66.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 7.9; 57.8 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs UNT 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	13–40	L	U70
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	UNT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	52–20	W	O65.5
Very close	USA vs GASO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-5.5	30–34	L	O60
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & rest	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Close	CCU vs GASO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-10	34–30	L	U69.75
Close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-1
UNLV LWWWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOOOO	5-0	100%	1-4
UNLV OUUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 63 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
UNLV	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 19–8 UNLV AFA leads · 27 games since 1981 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	UNLV 31 @ Air Force 27	AFA -3	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−8.0 →−8.3▼ 0.3#98

UNLV+5.4 →−1.0▼ 6.4#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AFA

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#20

Offense

◀ AFA better

#37

#133

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#86

−0.4 #102

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.6 #1

66 plays #75

Pace

◀ AFA faster

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #32	26.0 #87	AFA
Yards / play	7.07 #16	6.01 #110	AFA
PPA / play	+0.33 #13	+0.02 #38	AFA
Success rate	50% #19	45% #108	AFA

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #38	37.8 #133	UNLV
Yards / play	6.39 #38	7.71 #137	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.21 #39	+0.46 #137	UNLV
Success rate	48% #34	47% #124	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0 #53	6.8 #100	13.8 #80	8.8 #29	13.8 #2	22.6 #5
UNLV allowed	6.8 #103	4.0 #17	10.8 #56	7.6 #115	7.6 #94	15.2 #123

UNLV scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	8.2 #33	10.8 #41	19.0 #35	6.2 #61	10.4 #14	16.6 #27
AFA allowed	7.6 #115	7.6 #83	15.2 #97	10.4 #131	12.2 #134	22.6 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.