App State @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

App State

3-2 · Power #115

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

1-4 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

APP -2.5

✓ APP W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 30–27 GAST

✓ APP (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -3.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -3.5

1 → GAST

CloseAPP -2.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -3.5 · closed APP -2.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel APP -2

model APP -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (195 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -3.5

CloseAPP -2.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 2.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 3.7; 49.2 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ BALL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	38–44	L	O58.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	UAB @ NAVY 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	6–31	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WLLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2
GAST LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: APP away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP –UOOU	2-2	50%	3-2
GAST OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 467 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-7 22%
GAST	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

APP 2–0 GAST APP leads · 2 games since 2023 · APP has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Georgia State 26 @ App State 33	APP -7.5	GAST W
Nov 11 2023	App State 42 @ Georgia State 14	GAST -3	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−6.4 →−9.9▼ 3.5#106

GAST−9.1 →−14.1▼ 5.0#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

APP

Longer bar = better

GAST

#88

Offense

Even

#98

#82

Defense

◀ APP better

#131

−0.8 #121

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #110

73 plays #14

Pace

◀ APP faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #99	41.2 #136	APP
Yards / play	5.73 #73	6.58 #131	APP
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	+0.24 #124	Even
Success rate	43% #74	49% #131	APP

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #124	26.4 #90	APP
Yards / play	5.26 #101	5.29 #59	APP
PPA / play	+0.16 #64	+0.12 #83	Even
Success rate	41% #103	44% #96	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

APP scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	7.6 #42	4.8 #118	12.4 #96	7.4 #46	3.6 #122	11.0 #90
GAST allowed	7.0 #109	11.2 #123	18.2 #124	10.4 #131	12.6 #136	23.0 #136

GAST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.6 #62	5.8 #111	12.4 #96	2.6 #127	2.6 #131	5.2 #134
APP allowed	4.8 #69	8.0 #87	12.8 #77	4.6 #61	9.0 #126	13.6 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.