Troy @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Troy

3-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

3-2 · Power #71

final

Closing spread

TXST -7.5

✓ TROY W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 23–31 TXST

✗ TXST (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -10.5

CloseTXST -7.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -10.5

3 → TROY

CloseTXST -7.5

3 pts toward Troy

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -10.5 · closed TXST -7.5 · moved 3 toward TROYmodel TXST -10

model TXST -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (160 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (164 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -10.5

CloseTXST -7.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 7.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 48–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 8.2; 49.4 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UL vs TROY 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	51–30	W	O51.5
Very close	MEM vs RICE 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	27–20	P	U50.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7	51–10	W	O52
Very close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	25–9	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1
TXST WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY OUUUO	2-3	40%	3-2
TXST OOUUU	2-3	40%	3-2

Went over in Q3. Of 495 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
TXST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TROY 1–1 TXST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 3 2024	Texas State 38 @ Troy 17	TXST -14.5	TXST W
Oct 28 2023	Troy 31 @ Texas State 13	TROY -6.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−7.3▼ 0.2#91

TXST+1.6 →−0.3▼ 1.9#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TROY

Longer bar = better

TXST

#109

Offense

TXST better ▶

#27

#55

Defense

◀ TROY better

#94

−0.8 #120

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #112

67 plays #64

Pace

TXST faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #103	26.2 #86	Even
Yards / play	4.82 #123	5.55 #78	TXST
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	40% #109	44% #97	Even

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #36	23.2 #66	TXST
Yards / play	6.51 #33	5.26 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #18	+0.06 #55	TXST
Success rate	49% #21	40% #47	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.8 #128	6.0 #108	8.8 #122	2.0 #131	10.4 #17	12.4 #77
TXST allowed	3.2 #35	9.6 #111	12.8 #74	5.6 #81	7.8 #99	13.4 #98

TXST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	6.6 #62	10.2 #46	16.8 #54	7.4 #48	10.8 #13	18.2 #19
TROY allowed	4.2 #57	5.4 #36	9.6 #38	8.2 #123	5.4 #46	13.6 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.