Texas State @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-1 · Power #71

final

Final

Arkansas State

1-4 · Power #110

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -14.5

✓ ARST W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 38–24 ARST

✗ TXST (85%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -12.5

CloseTXST -14.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -12.5

2 → TXST

CloseTXST -14.5

2 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open64.5

▼ 1

Close63.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -12.5 · closed TXST -14.5 · moved 2 toward TXSTmodel TXST -14.5 matches the line

model TXST -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 55% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -12.5

CloseTXST -14.5

Total64.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 14.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 31–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points stayed under 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 14.5; 57.2 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	45–21	W	O64.25
Close	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-13	21–20	L	U60
Close	MEM @ FAU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	55–26	W	O62.5
Close	BGSU @ BALL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	38–13	W	U54.5
Close	UL @ USM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	23–13	L	U57.5
Close	LIB @ MTSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	37–17	W	U55
Close	WAKE @ ODU 2023 · Week 3 · close	-13.75	27–24	L	U60.5
Close	ECU @ TLSA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	38–31	L	O63.5
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
ARST WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-0	1-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1
ARST OOUUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 44 in the 4th quarter and got 41. 43% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ARST	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TXST 1–1 ARST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Arkansas State 9 @ Texas State 41	TXST -13.5	TXST W
Nov 18 2023	Texas State 31 @ Arkansas State 77	TXST -3	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →+0.8▼ 0.8#67

ARST−9.7 →−14.8▼ 5.1#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TXST

Longer bar = better

ARST

#30

Offense

◀ TXST better

#114

#91

Defense

◀ TXST better

#129

−0.8 #121

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.2 #63

70 plays #36

Pace

ARST faster ▶

72 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #38	32.0 #122	TXST
Yards / play	6.32 #45	7.12 #134	TXST
PPA / play	+0.34 #14	+0.29 #127	TXST
Success rate	51% #21	51% #133	TXST

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	ARST off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #104	25.0 #78	TXST
Yards / play	4.90 #124	5.50 #77	TXST
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	39% #114	43% #96	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	6.5 #65	12.0 #29	18.5 #40	9.3 #25	8.5 #44	17.8 #25
ARST allowed	13.0 #135	6.4 #58	19.4 #128	5.6 #81	7.0 #84	12.6 #88

ARST scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	4.8 #98	9.0 #66	13.8 #81	4.0 #108	4.0 #115	8.0 #122
TXST allowed	2.3 #22	11.3 #123	13.5 #86	7.0 #108	4.5 #34	11.5 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.