Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Old Dominion · Conference game
Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›
2-2 · Power #122
7
final
Final
@
3-1 · Power #46
47
▲ winner
Closing spread
ODU -18.5
✓ ODU W
Total
53.5
▲ Over · 54 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 16–35 ODU
✓ ODU (91%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenODU -17.5
CloseODU -18.5
Total55.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
1 pt toward Old Dominion
Total
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ODU -17.5 · closed ODU -18.5 · moved 1 toward ODUmodel ODU -19.5
Opened 55.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 2 downmodel 50.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (90 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (189 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenODU -17.5
CloseODU -18.5
Total55.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as an 18.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 47–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 53.5, as in 9 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 26.9 against an average line of 18.8; 65.5 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total
-20.569–10 W O55
Very close
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread
-18.555–3 W O51
Close
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form
-21.549–31 L O52.5
Close
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation
-19.549–23 W O45.5
Close
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form
-1642–35 L O56.5
Close
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread
-17.538–14 W U54.5
Close
MD vs NU
2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation
-14.2531–24 L O51
Close
JMU vs TXST
2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings
-21.7540–13 W O51.5
Close
2024 · Week 12 · close
-21.541–20 L O55
Close
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation
-16.548–20 W O48.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate Old Dominion ATS trend Hit
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 365-359 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Coastal Carolina ATS struggles (1-3)
Coastal Carolina have covered only 25% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 262-295 (47%)
Old Dominion ATS trend (3-1)
Old Dominion have covered 75% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)
Total moved down 2
55.5 → 53.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CCU−6.6 →−11.7▼ 5.1#112
ODU−5.3 →+3.7▲ 9.0#56
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CCU
Longer bar = better
ODU
#129
Offense
ODU better ▶
#23
#67
Defense
ODU better ▶
#44
−1.5 #134
Turnovers
ODU better ▶
0.0 #77
67 plays #69
Pace
◀ CCU faster
60 plays #126
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CCU has the ball
Advantage: ODU defense
CCU offODU defEdge
Points / game 14.5 #134 16.5 #29 ODU
Yards / play 4.40 #134 4.88 #39 ODU
PPA / play +0.01 #118 −0.11 #14 ODU
Success rate 37% #129 43% #92 ODU
When ODU has the ball
Advantage: ODU offense
ODU offCCU defEdge
Points / game 33.5 #52 26.5 #91 ODU
Yards / play 7.77 #6 5.20 #61 ODU
PPA / play +0.32 #18 +0.01 #41 ODU
Success rate 52% #14 41% #76 ODU

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams
CCU scoring against the ODU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
CCU scored
0.0
#136
2.5
#136
2.5
#136
5.3
#88
6.8
#74
12.0
#82
ODU allowed
1.8
#13
3.3
#12
5.0
#9
6.8
#105
4.8
#39
11.5
#71
ODU scoring against the CCU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ODU scored
5.8
#81
10.5
#41
16.3
#58
9.5
#21
7.8
#57
17.3
#28
CCU allowed
4.3
#62
8.8
#100
13.0
#84
6.0
#91
7.5
#93
13.5
#101

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
ODU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU14d bye
ODU7d
CCU +7 days
Tempo
Slow 127 plays
slowavg 134fast