Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F6 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

1-2 · Power #122

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

1-2 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

USA -14.5

✓ CCU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 19–33 USA

✗ USA (84%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -14.5

CloseUSA -14.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -14.5

no move

CloseUSA -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -14.5 · unchangedmodel USA -13

model USA -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 56% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -14.5

CloseUSA -14.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 14.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CCU won 38–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.2 against an average line of 15; 56.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	WSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	38–7	W	U52.25
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	24–14	L	U53
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-15	37–10	W	U52
Close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	MSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	24–17	L	U49
Close	USF vs UAB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	35–25	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
USA LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: CCU away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
USA OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 483 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−6.6 →−14.1▼ 7.5#122

USA−2.3 →−5.3▼ 3.0#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CCU

Longer bar = better

USA

#127

Offense

USA better ▶

#71

#88

Defense

◀ CCU better

#105

−3.0 #137

Turnovers

USA better ▶

0.0 #81

70 plays #42

Pace

◀ CCU faster

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: USA defense

	CCU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	6.7 #137	28.3 #103	USA
Yards / play	4.18 #132	5.34 #80	USA
PPA / play	−0.07 #128	+0.21 #115	Even
Success rate	38% #109	47% #121	Even

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #77	28.7 #105	USA
Yards / play	5.81 #74	5.18 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	+0.12 #89	Even
Success rate	44% #62	43% #89	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	0.0 #125	1.0 #129	1.0 #129	2.3 #113	3.3 #115	5.7 #122
USA allowed	9.3 #116	10.3 #111	19.7 #116	4.3 #60	4.3 #39	8.7 #39

USA scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	8.0 #39	5.3 #105	13.3 #81	4.3 #92	10.3 #23	14.7 #56
CCU allowed	5.7 #85	7.0 #68	12.7 #73	7.0 #98	9.0 #107	16.0 #115

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.