Boise State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

1-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-1 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

BOIS -11.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 32–21 AFA

✓ BOIS (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -8.5

CloseBOIS -11.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -8.5

3 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -11.5

3 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -8.5 · closed BOIS -11.5 · moved 3 toward BOISmodel BOIS -6.5

model BOIS -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 44% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (166 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -8.5

CloseBOIS -11.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as an 11.5-point road favorite at AFA, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 49–37; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 86 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 11.2; 48.8 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Close	VT @ STAN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	31–7	W	U49.5
Close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	TXST @ ULM 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	38–17	W	O50
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-10	29–28	L	O54.5
Close	OHIO @ BGSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-13	38–7	W	P45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1
AFA WL	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; AFA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS UO	1-1	50%	1-1
AFA OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 505 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
AFA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BOIS 1–0 AFA BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Air Force 19 @ Boise State 27	BOIS -7	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+6.0 →+2.7▼ 3.3#61

AFA−8.0 →−7.4▲ 0.6#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BOIS

Longer bar = better

AFA

#57

Offense

AFA better ▶

#36

#59

Defense

◀ BOIS better

#121

−0.5 #97

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #96

77 plays #12

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #72	31.0 #115	BOIS
Yards / play	6.59 #33	6.26 #118	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	+0.32 #131	BOIS
Success rate	47% #43	47% #120	BOIS

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #35	24.0 #84	AFA
Yards / play	6.05 #60	5.50 #91	AFA
PPA / play	+0.30 #30	0.00 #50	Even
Success rate	53% #20	29% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	13.5	5.0	18.5	3.5	7.0	10.5
AFA allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	12.0	8.5	20.5

AFA scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	10.0	10.5	20.5
BOIS allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	7.0	8.5	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.