NCAAF 1st half2025 Week 4: 50 of 50 games final. Favorites went 21-27 against the first-half spread, and halftime totals went 26 over, 24 under.How 1st-half lines work ⓘ
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Thursday, Sep 18
1
Friday, Sep 19
21H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
OKST -6
✓ TLSA W ATS
1H total
28.5
▼ Under 19
Projected
11–17
✗ OKST did not lead
Saturday, Sep 20
471H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UTAH -2
✓ TTU W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
14–17
✗ UTAH did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
LOU -15
✓ LOU W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
8–19
✓ LOU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UNLV -1
✓ M-OH W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 34
Projected
14–13
✗ UNLV did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNT -1.5
✓ UNT W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 42
Projected
17–12
✓ UNT led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
ORE -20.5
✓ ORST W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 28
Projected
5–26
✓ ORE led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
FSU -27
✓ FSU W ATS
1H total
29.5
▲ Over 52
Projected
0–27
✓ FSU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
ND -14.5
✓ PUR W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 58
Projected
5–21
✓ ND led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UCF -4.5
✓ UCF W ATS
1H total
23.5
▼ Under 23
Projected
9–16
✓ UCF led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
CONN -12
✓ BALL W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 17
Projected
8–20
✓ CONN led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
JMU -4.5
✓ LIB W ATS
1H total
24
▼ Under 20
Projected
13–12
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UL -1
✓ EMU W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 38
Projected
15–13
✗ UL did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TOL -7
✓ WMU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 3
Projected
18–8
✓ TOL led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
MSST -14.5
✓ NIU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 24
Projected
8–17
✓ MSST led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
GT -14.5
✓ TEM W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 28
Projected
6–21
✓ GT led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
KU -8
✓ KU W ATS
1H total
28.5
▼ Under 23
Projected
11–18
✓ KU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
FIU -3
✓ DEL W ATS
1H total
28.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
11–16
✗ FIU did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
ARST -2.5
✓ KENN W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 28
Projected
16–13
✗ ARST did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
MIZ -6
✓ SC W ATS
1H total
25
▲ Over 26
Projected
8–18
✗ MIZ did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
MRSH -1.5
✓ MTSU W ATS
1H total
23.5
▲ Over 41
Projected
14–11
✓ MRSH led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
WKU -4.5
✓ NEV W ATS
1H total
28.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
11–18
✗ WKU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
BOIS -7
Push
1H total
27
▲ Over 35
Projected
16–12
✓ BOIS led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
USA -8.5
✓ CCU W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
10–17
✓ USA led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
VAN -15.5
✓ VAN W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 51
Projected
7–23
✓ VAN led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
WASH -12
✓ WASH W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 34
Projected
19–10
✓ WASH led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
BAY -1
✓ ASU W ATS
1H total
32
▼ Under 20
Projected
15–17
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
BYU -3
✓ BYU W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 16
Projected
15–11
✓ BYU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
LT -2
✓ LT W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 40
Projected
10–15
✓ LT led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
TEX -23.5
✓ TEX W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 31
Projected
0–24
✓ TEX led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UTSA -3
✓ UTSA W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
15–15
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
CAL -8
✓ SDSU W ATS
1H total
23.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
16–8
✗ CAL did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
USC -11
✓ USC W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 34
Projected
8–22
✓ USC led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
FRES -1.5
✓ HAW W ATS
1H total
24.5
▼ Under 16
Projected
12–11
✗ FRES did not lead
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| Status | Matchup | 1H spread | Move | 1H total | Model | Trend | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
1H ATS: the team's 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line. Away team listed first. Spread edge = the model's 1st-half line minus the 1H spread (Total edge: the model's 1H total minus the 1H total), in points; a lean starts at 2 pts (3 on the total) and is context only. Projections use only games played before that week. Trends use each team's 1st halves earlier this season; dot = backtest status ( proven edge, above break-even but not proven, no edge). est. lines are estimated from the full-game line.
1H ATS leans (backtest)
1117-1157 (49.1%)
No edge 2016–26 · break-even 52.4%
1H O/U leans (backtest)
313-299 (51.1%)
No edge 3+ pt edges
Halftime leader picked
69.7%
7,953 games, walk-forward
This week
21-27 fav 1H ATS
O/U 26-24 · leans 12-9 ATS, 0-1 O/U
2025 team 1st-half records
Against the 1st-half line (real or estimated), halftime over/under and halftime leads
| Team | GP | 1H ATS | Cover % | 1H O-U | Led-trailed | 1H PF | 1H PA | 1H margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sacramento State |
1 | 1-0 | 100% | 1-0 | 1-0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | +4.0 |
 Wake Forest |
13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 6-7 | 11-2 | 16.8 | 8.6 | +8.2 |
 Washington State |
13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 5-8 | 10-3 | 13.5 | 8.9 | +4.5 |
 Northwestern |
13 | 9-3-1 | 75% | 5-8 | 5-8 | 12.0 | 10.1 | +1.9 |
 Arkansas |
12 | 9-3 | 75% | 9-3 | 6-5-1 | 21.4 | 18.3 | +3.1 |
 Oregon |
15 | 11-4 | 73.3% | 7-8 | 12-2-1 | 20.5 | 7.1 | +13.3 |
 Tulane |
14 | 10-4 | 71.4% | 5-9 | 10-3-1 | 17.6 | 11.1 | +6.5 |
 Texas Tech |
14 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 5-7-1 | 12-2 | 22.7 | 4.4 | +18.3 |
 North Texas |
14 | 9-4-1 | 69.2% | 10-4 | 10-2-2 | 24.5 | 12.5 | +12.0 |
 South Florida |
13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 7-6 | 9-3-1 | 19.3 | 11.8 | +7.5 |
 Central Michigan |
13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 5-7-1 | 9-4 | 13.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 |
 Old Dominion |
13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 4-9 | 8-4-1 | 18.3 | 7.6 | +10.7 |
 Washington |
13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 5-8 | 7-4-2 | 16.2 | 8.5 | +7.7 |
 Fresno State |
13 | 8-4-1 | 66.7% | 5-7-1 | 8-5 | 14.1 | 11.3 | +2.8 |
 San Diego State |
13 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 7-6 | 9-3-1 | 16.0 | 8.5 | +7.5 |
 TCU |
13 | 8-4-1 | 66.7% | 3-10 | 9-3-1 | 16.4 | 11.2 | +5.2 |
 Iowa State |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 6-6 | 9-2-1 | 15.3 | 10.3 | +5.1 |
 Rutgers |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 7-4-1 | 6-5-1 | 16.4 | 16.9 | -0.5 |
 Liberty |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 4-8 | 6-3-3 | 12.2 | 9.3 | +2.9 |
 Western Michigan |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 4-10 | 9-5 | 12.9 | 7.6 | +5.3 |
 Ohio State |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 6-8 | 13-1 | 16.4 | 4.4 | +12.0 |
 Virginia |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 4-10 | 7-4-3 | 17.0 | 9.9 | +7.1 |
 Pittsburgh |
13 | 7-4-2 | 63.6% | 8-5 | 9-4 | 19.0 | 12.1 | +6.9 |
 Eastern Michigan |
12 | 7-4-1 | 63.6% | 4-7-1 | 4-7-1 | 12.7 | 15.3 | -2.6 |
 Miami |
16 | 10-6 | 62.5% | 2-14 | 12-2-2 | 14.4 | 5.0 | +9.4 |
 Duke |
14 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 9-5 | 7-4-3 | 17.1 | 15.9 | +1.3 |
 BYU |
14 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 7-6 | 8-6 | 16.1 | 10.9 | +5.2 |
 Ohio |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 5-7-1 | 9-3-1 | 14.5 | 9.8 | +4.8 |
 NC State |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 8-5 | 6-7 | 18.6 | 15.2 | +3.4 |
 East Carolina |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 6-7 | 7-6 | 17.0 | 11.4 | +5.6 |
 Delaware |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 6-7 | 8-4-1 | 15.1 | 15.3 | -0.2 |
 Toledo |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 8-5 | 9-4 | 17.8 | 5.7 | +12.1 |
 UTSA |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 7-5-1 | 8-5 | 19.0 | 13.2 | +5.8 |
 Utah |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 9-4 | 10-3 | 20.8 | 8.6 | +12.2 |
 Indiana |
16 | 9-6 | 60% | 6-9-1 | 14-1-1 | 21.3 | 5.8 | +15.4 |
 Alabama |
15 | 9-6 | 60% | 5-9-1 | 9-4-2 | 17.0 | 9.5 | +7.5 |
 Ole Miss |
15 | 9-6 | 60% | 8-6-1 | 12-3 | 20.1 | 11.8 | +8.3 |
 Stanford |
12 | 6-4-2 | 60% | 6-6 | 2-7-3 | 10.1 | 16.6 | -6.5 |
 Hawai'i |
13 | 7-5-1 | 58.3% | 7-6 | 9-4 | 14.8 | 12.8 | +2.1 |
 New Mexico |
13 | 7-5-1 | 58.3% | 8-5 | 7-6 | 15.2 | 12.1 | +3.1 |
 SMU |
13 | 7-5-1 | 58.3% | 2-11 | 9-4 | 16.0 | 8.8 | +7.2 |
 Florida Atlantic |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 9-3 | 5-7 | 17.9 | 18.8 | -0.9 |
 Nevada |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 7-5 | 4-8 | 8.2 | 16.3 | -8.1 |
 Northern Illinois |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 6-6 | 4-6-2 | 10.2 | 11.1 | -0.9 |
 Kennesaw State |
14 | 8-6 | 57.1% | 5-8-1 | 9-4-1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | +1.3 |
 Cincinnati |
13 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 6-6-1 | 8-5 | 19.4 | 11.7 | +7.7 |
 Michigan State |
12 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 5-7 | 3-9 | 10.8 | 13.5 | -2.7 |
 Florida |
12 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 7-5 | 6-5-1 | 13.4 | 13.8 | -0.4 |
 New Mexico State |
12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 5-6 | 4-6-2 | 9.2 | 14.0 | -4.8 |
 Georgia |
14 | 7-6-1 | 53.8% | 7-7 | 9-4-1 | 16.9 | 8.9 | +8.1 |
 Western Kentucky |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 7-6 | 14.6 | 13.0 | +1.6 |
 Nebraska |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 8-4-1 | 16.9 | 10.8 | +6.1 |
 Army |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 6-7 | 8-4-1 | 11.6 | 10.5 | +1.2 |
 Southern Miss |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 3-9-1 | 8-5 | 13.6 | 12.8 | +0.8 |
 UConn |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 9-3-1 | 18.8 | 11.5 | +7.3 |
 Oklahoma |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 4-9 | 9-1-3 | 14.8 | 7.3 | +7.5 |
 Iowa |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 8-3-2 | 17.3 | 8.9 | +8.4 |
 Vanderbilt |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 6-4-3 | 17.5 | 13.0 | +4.5 |
 Arkansas State |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 6-7 | 4-7-2 | 14.6 | 15.5 | -0.9 |
 Clemson |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 6-7 | 7-5-1 | 16.7 | 11.7 | +5.0 |
 Utah State |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 7-6 | 7-6 | 16.5 | 15.5 | +1.0 |
 Arizona State |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 7-5-1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | +0.3 |
 California |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 8-5 | 13.8 | 11.7 | +2.1 |
 UNLV |
14 | 7-7 | 50% | 6-8 | 6-8 | 17.9 | 14.6 | +3.3 |
 Houston |
13 | 6-6-1 | 50% | 7-6 | 8-4-1 | 15.3 | 12.5 | +2.8 |
 App State |
13 | 6-6-1 | 50% | 4-7-1 | 5-7-1 | 11.7 | 14.4 | -2.7 |
 Georgia Tech |
13 | 6-6-1 | 50% | 5-8 | 7-4-2 | 15.0 | 11.8 | +3.2 |
 Arizona |
13 | 6-6-1 | 50% | 7-6 | 6-7 | 16.1 | 12.2 | +3.9 |
 Kansas |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 8-4 | 5-6-1 | 15.5 | 14.0 | +1.5 |
 UL Monroe |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 6-6 | 4-8 | 8.7 | 15.2 | -6.5 |
 Akron |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-5 | 5-6-1 | 11.9 | 14.1 | -2.2 |
 Buffalo |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 3-8-1 | 4-6-2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | +1.6 |
 UAB |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-4-1 | 3-8-1 | 13.4 | 22.4 | -9.0 |
 Auburn |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 4-8 | 6-4-2 | 14.2 | 10.3 | +3.9 |
 San José State |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 8-4 | 4-7-1 | 12.5 | 17.5 | -5.0 |
 Kentucky |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-5 | 4-7-1 | 12.3 | 15.6 | -3.3 |
 Air Force |
12 | 5-5-1 | 50% | 3-8-1 | 4-8 | 11.9 | 11.8 | +0.1 |
 Temple |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 8-4 | 5-7 | 14.1 | 16.8 | -2.7 |
 Georgia State |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 4-6-2 | 3-8-1 | 11.1 | 17.8 | -6.7 |
 Tulsa |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-5 | 5-7 | 12.4 | 15.0 | -2.6 |
 Jacksonville State |
14 | 6-7-1 | 46.2% | 6-8 | 8-5-1 | 14.3 | 12.1 | +2.2 |
 Miami (OH) |
14 | 6-7-1 | 46.2% | 7-7 | 6-7-1 | 11.0 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
 Missouri |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 6-7 | 6-5-2 | 14.5 | 10.5 | +4.1 |
 Florida International |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 10-3 | 4-8-1 | 14.5 | 17.3 | -2.8 |
 Tennessee |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 8-5 | 7-3-3 | 23.7 | 13.3 | +10.4 |
 Memphis |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 11-1-1 | 8-5 | 18.8 | 16.5 | +2.3 |
 Coastal Carolina |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 7-6 | 4-9 | 10.3 | 18.4 | -8.1 |
 Texas A&M |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 7-5-1 | 10-2-1 | 16.4 | 10.1 | +6.3 |
 USC |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 6-7 | 6-7 | 17.1 | 13.2 | +3.8 |
 Missouri State |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 7-6 | 3-8-2 | 12.5 | 14.3 | -1.8 |
 Louisiana Tech |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 5-8 | 6-7 | 10.9 | 9.8 | +1.1 |
 Texas State |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 5-8 | 9-3-1 | 17.7 | 13.2 | +4.5 |
 Georgia Southern |
13 | 5-6-2 | 45.5% | 6-6-1 | 8-5 | 15.4 | 18.4 | -3.0 |
 UCF |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 5-7 | 5-6-1 | 12.3 | 13.7 | -1.4 |
 Oklahoma State |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 5-7 | 2-10 | 8.6 | 18.6 | -10.0 |
 Kent State |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 6-5 | 3-9 | 8.3 | 19.0 | -10.8 |
 Virginia Tech |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 4-8 | 4-8 | 9.9 | 14.5 | -4.6 |
 James Madison |
14 | 6-8 | 42.9% | 8-6 | 9-4-1 | 16.4 | 12.9 | +3.5 |
 Troy |
14 | 6-8 | 42.9% | 5-9 | 7-7 | 10.9 | 12.4 | -1.5 |
 Illinois |
13 | 5-7-1 | 41.7% | 5-8 | 9-4 | 14.8 | 11.7 | +3.1 |
 Kansas State |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 4-8 | 6-3-3 | 13.4 | 11.9 | +1.5 |
 Bowling Green |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 3-7-2 | 5-6-1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | -2.8 |
 Wyoming |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 5-7 | 4-8 | 7.1 | 11.9 | -4.8 |
 Syracuse |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 4-8 | 3-8-1 | 9.5 | 18.5 | -9.0 |
 Maryland |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 6-6 | 5-7 | 14.4 | 11.8 | +2.7 |
 Purdue |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 7-5 | 4-8 | 10.4 | 18.3 | -7.9 |
 Ball State |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 4-8 | 2-9-1 | 6.8 | 17.1 | -10.3 |
 Boston College |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 7-5 | 4-5-3 | 12.7 | 16.9 | -4.3 |
 Marshall |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 7-4-1 | 7-4-1 | 16.9 | 14.4 | +2.5 |
 Massachusetts |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 8-3-1 | 2-10 | 8.9 | 21.5 | -12.6 |
 South Carolina |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 5-7 | 6-6 | 15.3 | 10.2 | +5.2 |
 Boise State |
14 | 5-8-1 | 38.5% | 7-6-1 | 8-6 | 16.4 | 13.1 | +3.3 |
 Navy |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 7-5-1 | 7-5-1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | +3.0 |
 Louisiana |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 8-5 | 5-7-1 | 16.0 | 16.3 | -0.3 |
 Rice |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 8-5 | 3-10 | 10.3 | 17.9 | -7.6 |
 Minnesota |
13 | 4-7-1 | 36.4% | 7-6 | 7-6 | 12.8 | 12.5 | +0.3 |
 Colorado |
12 | 4-7-1 | 36.4% | 5-7 | 3-7-2 | 10.6 | 16.1 | -5.5 |
 Florida State |
12 | 4-7-1 | 36.4% | 5-6-1 | 6-5-1 | 17.8 | 10.4 | +7.4 |
 Mississippi State |
13 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 5-8 | 5-7-1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | +0.9 |
 Penn State |
13 | 4-8-1 | 33.3% | 7-6 | 9-3-1 | 14.2 | 9.8 | +4.4 |
 Sam Houston |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 4-8 | 0-10-2 | 7.3 | 18.8 | -11.5 |
 Wisconsin |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 2-10 | 3-9 | 4.3 | 12.1 | -7.8 |
 UTEP |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 6-6 | 2-9-1 | 11.1 | 17.3 | -6.2 |
 UCLA |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 6-6 | 4-8 | 8.2 | 17.0 | -8.8 |
 Notre Dame |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 6-6 | 10-2 | 23.7 | 10.7 | +13.0 |
 North Carolina |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 4-8 | 2-8-2 | 8.8 | 14.8 | -6.0 |
 Louisville |
13 | 4-9 | 30.8% | 5-8 | 6-6-1 | 15.1 | 11.2 | +3.9 |
 Middle Tennessee |
12 | 3-8 | 27.3% | 7-3-1 | 1-10-1 | 10.9 | 16.3 | -5.4 |
 LSU |
13 | 3-9-1 | 25% | 4-9 | 7-5-1 | 11.7 | 10.2 | +1.5 |
 West Virginia |
12 | 3-9 | 25% | 5-6-1 | 3-8-1 | 8.4 | 17.8 | -9.3 |
 Michigan |
13 | 3-10 | 23.1% | 6-7 | 7-3-3 | 13.7 | 10.5 | +3.2 |
 Charlotte |
12 | 2-9-1 | 18.2% | 6-5 | 0-11-1 | 5.8 | 20.7 | -14.8 |
 South Alabama |
12 | 2-9-1 | 18.2% | 4-7-1 | 5-7 | 12.1 | 14.8 | -2.7 |
 Colorado State |
12 | 2-9 | 18.2% | 5-7 | 1-10-1 | 8.0 | 17.5 | -9.5 |
 Baylor |
12 | 2-10 | 16.7% | 5-7 | 4-6-2 | 16.7 | 16.8 | -0.2 |
 Oregon State |
12 | 2-10 | 16.7% | 3-9 | 2-10 | 6.9 | 16.8 | -9.8 |
 Texas |
13 | 2-11 | 15.4% | 7-6 | 6-6-1 | 13.5 | 10.5 | +2.9 |
How it works
Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.
1st-half lines. ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”
Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.
Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 2–6 pts (ATS) or 3+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.
Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.
NCAAF first-half betting FAQ
First-half lines, 1H ATS and halftime totals explained
What is a first-half spread in the NCAAF?
A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.
How are NCAAF first-half lines set here?
ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime).
How is the 1st-half projection made?
The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.
Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?
Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 1117-1157 (49.1%) and over/under leans 313-299 (51.1%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.
How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?
69.7% of 7,953 NCAAF games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.