Iowa @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Fri, Sep 19, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

2-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

3-0 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

IOWA -2.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 27–25 RUTG

✓ IOWA (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -2.5

no move

CloseIOWA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -2.5 · unchangedmodel RUTG -1

model RUTG -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 44% (171 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 2.5-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 38–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 2.9; 49.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	19–27	L	U46.5
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	ND @ SYR 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-0.5	41–24	W	O48
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
RUTG LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
RUTG OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 372 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
RUTG	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 1–0 RUTG IOWA leads · 1 game since 2023 · IOWA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Rutgers 0 @ Iowa 22	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+7.6▼ 0.2#36

RUTG+3.4 →+5.8▲ 2.4#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IOWA

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#71

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#27

#25

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#78

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+1.0 #31

68 plays #52

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

73 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #63	19.3 #60	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #112	6.55 #125	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #64	+0.04 #65	Even
Success rate	47% #45	39% #62	Even

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #13	10.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.34 #48	3.49 #4	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.32 #26	0.00 #52	RUTG
Success rate	53% #22	34% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 119 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	7.7 #53	11.3 #38	19.0 #43	6.7 #59	5.7 #70	12.3 #72
RUTG allowed	4.7 #60	5.3 #39	10.0 #53	9.3 #108	0.0 #1	9.3 #54

RUTG scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	9.0 #32	18.0 #9	27.0 #11	9.0 #32	10.3 #20	19.3 #20
IOWA allowed	2.0 #24	7.0 #64	9.0 #47	0.0 #1	1.0 #8	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.