Massachusetts @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Iowa

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Massachusetts

0-2 · Power #136

final

Final

Iowa

1-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -35.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 7–42 IOWA

✓ IOWA (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -35.5

CloseIOWA -35.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -35.5

no move

CloseIOWA -35.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -35.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -32.5

model IOWA -32.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 34.5–36.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 46% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -35.5

CloseIOWA -35.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 35.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 47–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 38.7 against an average line of 32.8; 50.9 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Loose	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	WISC vs NMSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-37.5	66–7	W	O45.25
Loose	M-OH vs KENT 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–7	L	U47.5
Loose	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Loose	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Loose	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Loose	TA&M vs MASS 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-32	20–3	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LL	0-2	0%	—	0-1
IOWA LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OO	2-0	100%	0-2
IOWA UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 308 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
IOWA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−19.9▼ 5.3#132

IOWA+7.8 →+6.7▼ 1.1#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MASS

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#98

Offense

Even

#88

#111

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#45

−0.5 #90

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #93

65 plays #84

Pace

IOWA faster ▶

66 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	MASS off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #111	11.5 #32	IOWA
Yards / play	5.12 #96	3.99 #26	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.05 #105	+0.07 #85	Even
Success rate	42% #79	34% #37	IOWA

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: IOWA offense

	IOWA off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #94	34.5 #120	IOWA
Yards / play	4.33 #126	6.37 #118	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.22 #117	IOWA
Success rate	47% #48	42% #89	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 88 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.0	7.0	15.0	1.5	1.5	3.0
IOWA allowed	3.0	7.0	10.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

IOWA scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	1.5	12.0	13.5	5.0	5.0	10.0
MASS allowed	3.5	15.5	19.0	7.0	8.5	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.