Central Michigan @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Michigan

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

1-1 · Power #103

final

Final

Michigan

1-1 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -27.5

✓ MICH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 8–36 MICH

✓ MICH (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -27.5

CloseMICH -27.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -27.5

no move

CloseMICH -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open42.5

no move

Close42.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -27.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -30

model MICH -30

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 60% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -27.5

CloseMICH -27.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 27.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 63–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.3 against an average line of 26.4; 50.5 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Close	AUB vs ULM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total	-24.5	48–14	W	O46
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Close	BOIS vs CSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-25	49–10	W	O42.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-24	14–49	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1
MICH LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
MICH OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 210 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MICH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−14.3▲ 0.1#123

MICH+12.2 →+10.6▼ 1.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CMU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#119

Offense

MICH better ▶

#86

#115

Defense

MICH better ▶

#68

+1.5 #19

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #8

66 plays #67

Pace

◀ CMU faster

60 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	CMU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #118	20.5 #70	MICH
Yards / play	4.30 #127	4.50 #51	MICH
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.01 #57	MICH
Success rate	35% #125	42% #93	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #93	29.5 #109	Even
Yards / play	6.22 #57	6.67 #124	MICH
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.19 #110	MICH
Success rate	35% #126	46% #118	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	5.0	6.5	11.5	3.5	1.5	5.0
MICH allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	7.0	1.5	8.5

MICH scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.0	5.0	12.0	8.0	3.5	11.5
CMU allowed	3.5	12.0	15.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.