Oregon @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

2-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

1-1 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

ORE -24.5

✓ NU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 37–12 NU

✓ ORE (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -27.5

CloseORE -24.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -27.5

3 → NU

CloseORE -24.5

3 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -27.5 · closed ORE -24.5 · moved 3 toward NUmodel ORE -27

model ORE -27

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -27.5

CloseORE -24.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like ORE as a 24.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 34–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 48 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26 against an average line of 23.6; 45 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5
Loose	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27	42–6	W	U61
Loose	UGA @ UK 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-22	13–12	L	U45
Loose	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	49–13	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
NU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OO	2-0	100%	2-0
NU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORE 1–1 NU Series tied · 2 games since 1974 · ORE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+24.0▲ 2.7#2

NU−2.5 →−4.0▼ 1.5#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ORE

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ ORE better

#93

#21

Defense

◀ ORE better

#63

+1.0 #35

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−2.5 #135

63 plays #98

Pace

NU faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	64.0 #3	15.0 #49	ORE
Yards / play	9.02 #3	4.85 #69	ORE
PPA / play	+0.74 #2	+0.05 #73	ORE
Success rate	64% #4	38% #60	ORE

When NU has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	NU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #99	8.0 #11	ORE
Yards / play	5.74 #79	3.82 #19	ORE
PPA / play	−0.09 #128	−0.06 #37	ORE
Success rate	44% #67	30% #15	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	18.5	21.0	39.5	21.0	3.5	24.5
NU allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	1.5	3.5	5.0

NU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	9.0	3.5	12.5	3.0	7.0	10.0
ORE allowed	0.0	3.0	3.0	1.5	3.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.