Ohio @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Ohio State

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

1-1 · Power #78

final

Final

Ohio State

2-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -28.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 10–39 OSU

✓ OSU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -31.5

CloseOSU -28.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -31.5

3 → OHIO

CloseOSU -28.5

3 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -31.5 · closed OSU -28.5 · moved 3 toward OHIOmodel OSU -31.5

model OSU -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 61% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (130 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -31.5

CloseOSU -28.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 28.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 37–9; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.7 against an average line of 27.5; 46.3 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Loose	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · loose	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Loose	ALA vs TA&M 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-24	24–20	L	U48
Loose	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Loose	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5
Loose	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Loose	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-31	33–24	L	O45
Loose	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-21.5	35–14	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
OSU WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OU	1-1	50%	1-1
OSU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
OSU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.2 →−1.0▲ 2.2#73

OSU+26.4 →+25.1▼ 1.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

OHIO

Longer bar = better

OSU

#86

Offense

OSU better ▶

#34

#86

Defense

OSU better ▶

#26

−1.0 #106

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+1.5 #22

71 plays #36

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

60 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	OHIO off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #91	3.5 #2	OSU
Yards / play	6.16 #59	4.11 #30	OSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #94	−0.24 #6	OSU
Success rate	39% #101	38% #66	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #30	22.0 #77	OSU
Yards / play	7.12 #25	5.59 #96	OSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #49	+0.09 #88	OSU
Success rate	50% #32	41% #82	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 74 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.0	12.0	17.0	7.0	0.0	7.0
OSU allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

OSU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	10.5	10.5	21.0	10.5	10.5	21.0
OHIO allowed	7.0	12.0	19.0	1.5	1.5	3.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.