USC @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 6:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

USC

2-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-0 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

USC -20.5

✓ PUR W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 40–19 PUR

✓ USC (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -21.5

CloseUSC -20.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -21.5

1 → PUR

CloseUSC -20.5

1 pt toward Purdue

Total

Open59.5

no move

Close59.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -21.5 · closed USC -20.5 · moved 1 toward PURmodel USC -21

model USC -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (181 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -21.5

CloseUSC -20.5

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like USC as a 20.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 33–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 50 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 743%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 19.3; 53.3 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ WAKE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	40–6	W	U65.5
Close	MIA @ USF 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	50–15	W	O64.5
Loose	WASH @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20	31–24	L	U67
Loose	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Loose	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5
Loose	ALA @ VAN 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & situation	-23	35–40	L	O53.5
Loose	ALA @ TEX 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21.25	20–19	L	U63.75
Loose	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
PUR WL	1-1	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OO	2-0	100%	2-0
PUR UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 48% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
PUR	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+18.8▲ 4.8#9

PUR−8.2 →−4.6▲ 3.6#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USC

Longer bar = better

PUR

Offense

◀ USC better

#42

#45

Defense

Even

#51

+1.0 #28

Turnovers

◀ USC better

−0.5 #94

60 plays #113

Pace

PUR faster ▶

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	66.0 #1	8.5 #16	Even
Yards / play	11.27 #1	4.34 #44	USC
PPA / play	+0.87 #1	+0.03 #62	USC
Success rate	73% #1	41% #80	USC

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #54	16.5 #55	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #66	4.45 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #29	−0.03 #49	Even
Success rate	54% #20	32% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 72 FBS teams

USC scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	17.5	19.0	36.5	14.0	15.5	29.5
PUR allowed	7.0	0.0	7.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

PUR scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	14.0	8.5	22.5	5.0	5.0	10.0
USC allowed	4.5	7.0	11.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.