Minnesota @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at California

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

2-0 · Power #69

final

Final

California

2-0 · Power #76

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -3.5

✓ CAL W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 21–18 CAL

✗ MINN (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -2.5

1 → MINN

CloseMINN -3.5

1 pt toward Minnesota

Total

Open43.5

▼ 4

Close39.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -2.5 · closed MINN -3.5 · moved 1 toward MINNmodel MINN -2

model MINN -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (155 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseMINN -3.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 3.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 3.7; 43.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IOWA @ MINN 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–14	W	O34.5
Loose	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-4.5	14–26	L	P40
Loose	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Loose	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Loose	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-1	10–9	P	U45
Loose	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53
Loose	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Loose	ILL @ DUKE 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	45–19	W	O49.25
Loose	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Loose	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	35–0	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN L–	0-1	0%	—	0-1
CAL WL	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN UO	1-1	50%	2-0
CAL OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 35.5–43.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	4-6 40%
CAL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+8.6 →+7.6▼ 1.0#36

CAL+3.8 →+2.4▼ 1.4#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MINN

Longer bar = better

CAL

#30

Offense

◀ MINN better

#72

Defense

◀ MINN better

#22

+1.5 #21

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.5 #57

71 plays #36

Pace

◀ MINN faster

68 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #23	9.0 #13	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #41	4.24 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #36	−0.18 #13	CAL
Success rate	54% #19	34% #30	Even

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	CAL off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #54	5.0 #3	MINN
Yards / play	6.10 #59	2.38 #2	MINN
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	−0.22 #9	MINN
Success rate	42% #89	22% #2	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 112 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	17.5	17.0	34.5	5.0	5.0	10.0
CAL allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	3.0	4.5	7.5

CAL scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	8.5	5.5	14.0	10.5	10.0	20.5
MINN allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.