New Mexico @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Fri, Sep 12, 2025, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UCLA

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

1-1 · Power #81

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

0-2 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

UCLA -15.5

✓ UNM W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 21–37 UCLA

✗ UCLA (87%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -14.5

CloseUCLA -15.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -14.5

1 → UCLA

CloseUCLA -15.5

1 pt toward UCLA

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -14.5 · closed UCLA -15.5 · moved 1 toward UCLAmodel UCLA -17.5

model UCLA -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 45% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (151 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -14.5

CloseUCLA -15.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 15.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 35–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 17; 55 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	USF vs UAB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	35–25	L	O55.5
Loose	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Loose	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	41–28	L	O55
Loose	LOU vs USF 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-15.5	41–3	W	U63.5
Loose	MSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	24–17	L	U49
Loose	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Loose	HOU vs RICE 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-17.5	34–27	L	O52.5
Loose	MSST vs MASS 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-19.5	45–20	W	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
UCLA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OU	1-1	50%	1-1
UCLA OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UCLA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−13.2▲ 0.5#118

UCLA+5.3 →−0.4▼ 5.7#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNM

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#107

Offense

UCLA better ▶

#88

#105

Defense

◀ UNM better

#127

−1.0 #115

Turnovers

Even

−1.5 #126

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ UNM faster

61 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Even matchup

	UNM off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #88	36.5 #124	UNM
Yards / play	4.66 #116	6.34 #117	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #116	+0.40 #132	Even
Success rate	38% #108	57% #135	UNM

When UCLA has the ball

Even matchup

	UCLA off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #119	28.0 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #92	6.30 #116	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.15 #73	+0.10 #91	Even
Success rate	43% #68	43% #105	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 15 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	5.0	7.5	12.5
UCLA allowed	11.5	11.5	23.0	3.5	10.0	13.5

UCLA scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	0.0	5.0	5.0	6.5	5.0	11.5
UNM allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	4.5	6.5	11.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.