New Mexico State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New Mexico

Weather at kickoff75°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-1 · Power #129

final

Final

New Mexico

2-1 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -17.5

✓ UNM W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 19–36 UNM

✓ UNM (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -13.5

CloseUNM -17.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -13.5

4 → UNM

CloseUNM -17.5

4 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -13.5 · closed UNM -17.5 · moved 4 toward UNMmodel UNM -16.5

model UNM -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -13.5

CloseUNM -17.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 17.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 38–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.5 against an average line of 16.8; 55.3 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Close	OHIO vs BALL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-17.5	42–21	W	O51.5
Close	CONN vs TEM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-17.5	29–20	L	P49
Close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Loose	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Loose	USF vs TLSA 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-17	63–30	W	O60
Loose	MSST vs MASS 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-19.5	45–20	W	O59
Loose	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Loose	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-16	27–14	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
UNM WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
UNM OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 471 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UNM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NMSU 1–1 UNM Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · UNM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	New Mexico 50 @ New Mexico State 40	UNM -8.5	UNM W
Sep 16 2023	New Mexico State 27 @ New Mexico 17	UNM -2.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−21.1 →−20.1▲ 1.0#134

UNM−13.7 →−7.9▲ 5.8#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NMSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#120

Offense

UNM better ▶

#87

#57

Defense

◀ NMSU better

#92

0.0 #62

Turnovers

◀ NMSU better

−1.0 #125

61 plays #118

Pace

UNM faster ▶

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	NMSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #123	22.0 #65	UNM
Yards / play	4.92 #119	6.16 #117	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #103	+0.09 #76	UNM
Success rate	34% #135	45% #109	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	UNM off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #79	22.0 #64	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #95	5.23 #64	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.05 #62	NMSU
Success rate	42% #82	37% #39	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.0 #119	5.7 #108	8.7 #121	2.3 #128	7.0 #63	9.3 #112
UNM allowed	4.7 #73	9.0 #102	13.7 #92	4.0 #47	4.3 #39	8.3 #35

UNM scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.7 #99	8.0 #86	12.7 #90	3.3 #115	12.0 #8	15.3 #46
NMSU allowed	4.3 #70	5.7 #48	10.0 #48	2.3 #23	9.7 #122	12.0 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.