Jacksonville State @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Southern Miss

Weather at kickoff84°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

2-2 · Power #101

final

Final

Southern Miss

2-2 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

USM -5.5

✓ USM W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 26–30 USM

✓ USM (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -4.5

CloseUSM -5.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSM -4.5

1 → USM

CloseUSM -5.5

1 pt toward Southern Miss

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USM -4.5 · closed USM -5.5 · moved 1 toward USMmodel JXST -2.5

model JXST -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (137 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (179 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSM -4.5

CloseUSM -5.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 5.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USM won 42–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 4.2; 56.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs WKU 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	52–12	W	O58.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	20–17	L	U55
Close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Close	ECU vs NAVY 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-2.75	20–34	L	P54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
USM LWWL	2-2	50%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; USM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2
USM UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 451 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
USM	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 1–1 USM Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Southern Miss 7 @ Jacksonville State 44	JXST -6.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−6.7▼ 1.6#84

USM−18.7 →−11.3▲ 7.4#112

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

JXST

Longer bar = better

USM

#55

Offense

◀ JXST better

#87

#95

Defense

USM better ▶

#66

+0.8 #28

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #38

69 plays #43

Pace

Even

70 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #68	26.5 #90	JXST
Yards / play	5.92 #66	5.39 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #44	+0.02 #48	Even
Success rate	48% #43	39% #53	Even

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #77	23.0 #70	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #85	5.92 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	+0.17 #105	Even
Success rate	40% #99	44% #102	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.0 #59	9.3 #61	16.3 #65	8.5 #36	6.0 #83	14.5 #57
USM allowed	9.3 #123	5.8 #46	15.0 #101	7.0 #105	4.5 #39	11.5 #72

USM scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	8.5 #40	5.0 #118	13.5 #86	4.3 #100	10.5 #18	14.8 #54
JXST allowed	6.8 #99	4.3 #22	11.0 #59	2.5 #24	9.5 #116	12.0 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.