Virginia Tech @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

1-3 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

NC State

3-1 · Power #44

final

Closing spread

NCSU -10.5

✓ VT W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 23–33 NCSU

✗ NCSU (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -10.5

CloseNCSU -10.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -10.5

no move

CloseNCSU -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -10.5 · unchangedmodel NCSU -7

model NCSU -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -10.5

CloseNCSU -10.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against VT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 23–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.9 against an average line of 9.9; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	UCF vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	56–12	W	O55
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5
Close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	34–24	P	U64
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	TCU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	49–28	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT LLL–	0-3	0%	—	0-1
NCSU LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: VT away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
NCSU UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	5-5 50%
NCSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VT 0–1 NCSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NCSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	NC State 35 @ Virginia Tech 28	VT -2.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+6.8 →−1.1▼ 7.9#72

NCSU+0.7 →+3.0▲ 2.3#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#85

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#58

#122

Defense

NCSU better ▶

#93

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #100

69 plays #47

Pace

Even

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #95	29.3 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #100	6.16 #116	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	46% #52	38% #41	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #63	29.8 #112	NCSU
Yards / play	6.40 #42	6.60 #127	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.27 #126	NCSU
Success rate	45% #62	46% #121	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VT scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.8 #100	7.5 #92	12.3 #96	4.3 #100	7.3 #61	11.5 #89
NCSU allowed	8.8 #117	10.3 #116	19.0 #120	5.3 #71	5.0 #53	10.3 #56

NCSU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	7.8 #46	9.3 #61	17.0 #58	10.3 #12	4.3 #109	14.5 #57
VT allowed	3.5 #51	9.3 #104	12.8 #81	5.8 #84	11.3 #132	17.0 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.