USC @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

USC

4-0 · Power #12

final

Final

Illinois

3-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -6.5

✓ ILL W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 34–27 ILL

✗ USC (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total56.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -1.5

5 → USC

CloseUSC -6.5

5 pts toward USC

Total

Open56.5

▲ 6

Close62.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -1.5 · closed USC -6.5 · moved 5 toward USCmodel USC -10

model USC -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 56% (126 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total56.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like USC as a 6.5-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 34–32 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 66 points went over 62.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 9.2; 56 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Loose	TCU @ KU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	38–31	P	U70.25
Loose	MISS @ FLA 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation	-13	17–24	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WWLL	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2
ILL WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	0-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OOUO	3-1	75%	4-0
ILL UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 176 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ILL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+18.9▲ 4.9#9

ILL+4.1 →+6.2▲ 2.1#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USC

Longer bar = better

ILL

Offense

◀ USC better

#49

#50

Defense

◀ USC better

#81

+1.0 #20

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #18

64 plays #102

Pace

◀ USC faster

60 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	52.5 #5	21.3 #61	USC
Yards / play	9.19 #1	5.58 #85	USC
PPA / play	+0.60 #1	+0.15 #96	USC
Success rate	60% #2	42% #82	USC

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #44	20.3 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #74	5.04 #52	USC
PPA / play	+0.28 #29	+0.01 #43	Even
Success rate	46% #50	39% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USC scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.0 #15	16.5 #9	28.5 #8	12.0 #7	12.0 #9	24.0 #4
ILL allowed	4.3 #65	7.8 #82	12.0 #71	5.0 #75	4.3 #36	9.3 #47

ILL scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	7.8 #49	8.5 #76	16.3 #68	8.8 #34	11.3 #15	20.0 #16
USC allowed	4.0 #62	5.0 #36	9.0 #46	7.8 #115	3.5 #30	11.3 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.