Oregon @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oregon

4-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

3-0 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

PSU -4.5

✓ ORE W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 27–31 PSU

✗ PSU (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -3.5

ClosePSU -4.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -3.5

1 → PSU

ClosePSU -4.5

1 pt toward Penn State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -3.5 · closed PSU -4.5 · moved 1 toward PSUmodel PSU -1.5

model PSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (166 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -3.5

ClosePSU -4.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against ORE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 30–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 52.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 5.8; 63.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–24	W	O47
Loose	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Loose	IU vs ILL 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	63–10	W	O51
Loose	TCU vs UCF 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2.5	34–35	L	O61.5
Loose	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar total	-7	27–17	W	U50.5
Loose	WASH vs ORE 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	36–33	P	O67
Loose	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & situation	-9	23–45	L	O56
Loose	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & spread	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Loose	MIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	42–31	W	O50.25
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WWLL	2-2	50%	0-1	—
PSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: ORE away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0
PSU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in OT. Of 502 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PSU	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORE 1–0 PSU ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Penn State 37 @ Oregon 45	ORE -3.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+22.6▲ 1.3#2

PSU+20.4 →+19.8▼ 0.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ORE

Longer bar = better

PSU

Offense

◀ ORE better

#31

#17

Defense

Even

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+2.0 #4

65 plays #89

Pace

PSU faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	50.8 #7	5.7 #3	Even
Yards / play	8.09 #7	3.59 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.58 #3	−0.33 #2	Even
Success rate	59% #4	29% #8	Even

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #14	9.3 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.43 #41	4.05 #15	ORE
PPA / play	+0.24 #47	−0.05 #23	ORE
Success rate	51% #22	34% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	12.8 #6	16.5 #7	29.3 #4	16.5 #1	5.0 #101	21.5 #8
PSU allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #4	1.0 #2	0.0 #1	4.7 #45	4.7 #8

PSU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	8.0 #43	11.3 #37	19.3 #36	10.7 #7	14.0 #1	24.7 #1
ORE allowed	1.8 #16	1.5 #7	3.3 #6	0.8 #6	5.3 #56	6.0 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.