Indiana @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

5-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Oregon

5-0 · Power #4

final

Closing spread

ORE -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 25–32 ORE

✗ ORE (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -7.5

CloseORE -7.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -7.5

no move

CloseORE -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -7.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -7

model ORE -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (155 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -7.5

CloseORE -7.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 7.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 30–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 51.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 7.4; 58.4 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7	27–17	W	U50.5
Close	OSU vs TENN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	42–17	W	O47
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	OSU vs IU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	38–15	W	O52.5
Close	IU vs ILL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-7	63–10	W	O51
Close	OSU vs MICH 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9	23–45	L	O56
Close	OU vs AUB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	24–17	W	U47.5
Close	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LW–WL	2-2	50%	0-1	—
ORE WWLLW	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOOOU	3-2	60%	5-0
ORE OOUUO	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	8-2 80%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+20.6▲ 7.2#5

ORE+21.3 →+23.0▲ 1.7#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

Even

Defense

Even

#17

+1.2 #9

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #16

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ IU faster

67 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	47.8 #4	12.2 #6	Even
Yards / play	7.54 #7	4.16 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #16	0.00 #32	Even
Success rate	54% #5	36% #17	Even

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	46.6 #6	9.6 #3	Even
Yards / play	7.47 #8	4.21 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.47 #3	−0.10 #11	Even
Success rate	54% #8	30% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	12.6 #4	13.0 #21	25.6 #6	13.2 #3	9.0 #31	22.2 #6
ORE allowed	1.4 #8	1.8 #3	3.2 #5	0.6 #3	7.0 #84	7.6 #19

ORE scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	10.2 #15	13.8 #12	24.0 #11	14.6 #1	5.4 #92	20.0 #9
IU allowed	3.4 #38	3.2 #13	6.6 #13	0.6 #3	2.4 #8	3.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.