Auburn @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

3-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Oklahoma

3-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -6.5

✓ OU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 20–27 OU

✓ OU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -6.5

CloseOU -6.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -6.5

no move

CloseOU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Close47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -6.5 · unchangedmodel OU -5.5

model OU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (165 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -6.5

CloseOU -6.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 6.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 6.6; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Very close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Very close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Very close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Very close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Very close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Very close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	27–10	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
OU LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
OU UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
OU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AUB 0–1 OU OU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Oklahoma 27 @ Auburn 21	AUB -1.5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.0 →+13.7▲ 2.7#18

OU+11.4 →+16.2▲ 4.8#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AUB

Longer bar = better

#33

Offense

Even

#42

#39

Defense

OU better ▶

+0.7 #42

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−1.7 #130

66 plays #69

Pace

OU faster ▶

74 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	AUB off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #42	6.3 #4	OU
Yards / play	6.27 #49	3.48 #3	OU
PPA / play	+0.33 #24	−0.13 #14	Even
Success rate	55% #15	24% #3	Even

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #56	14.0 #31	AUB
Yards / play	6.39 #43	4.56 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #40	+0.06 #70	OU
Success rate	51% #28	31% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	9.3 #23	12.7 #27	22.0 #29	8.0 #38	7.0 #58	15.0 #51
OU allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #4	1.0 #2	5.3 #74	0.0 #1	5.3 #16

OU scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	8.3 #39	12.7 #27	21.0 #31	7.0 #51	5.7 #74	12.7 #71
AUB allowed	2.0 #24	4.3 #31	6.3 #24	5.3 #74	2.3 #18	7.7 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.