South Alabama @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Auburn

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-1 · Power #102

final

Final

Auburn

2-0 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -26.5

✓ USA W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 15–40 AUB

✓ AUB (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -25.5

CloseAUB -26.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -25.5

1 → AUB

CloseAUB -26.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -25.5 · closed AUB -26.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -21

model AUB -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 53% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (152 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -25.5

CloseAUB -26.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 26.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 31–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.1 against an average line of 25.6; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Very close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	MIA vs MTSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-25.5	31–45	L	O53.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	BAY vs TXST 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-30	42–7	W	U53
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-24	39–17	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LW	1-1	50%	—	1-0
AUB WL	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OO	2-0	100%	1-1
AUB OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
AUB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−2.5▼ 0.2#78

AUB+11.0 →+13.8▲ 2.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USA

Longer bar = better

AUB

#46

Offense

AUB better ▶

#27

#101

Defense

AUB better ▶

#49

+1.0 #41

Turnovers

◀ USA better

0.0 #77

61 plays #112

Pace

AUB faster ▶

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #50	13.5 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #46	4.55 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #51	+0.09 #89	USA
Success rate	50% #35	30% #12	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #33	27.0 #104	AUB
Yards / play	6.69 #35	5.34 #87	AUB
PPA / play	+0.33 #27	+0.15 #103	AUB
Success rate	57% #14	44% #108	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 35 FBS teams

USA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	10.5	5.0	15.5	3.5	15.5	19.0
AUB allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

AUB scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	10.5	8.5	19.0	10.5	10.5	21.0
USA allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	5.0	6.5	11.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.