Iowa State @ Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arkansas State

Weather at kickoff92°F4 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Iowa State

3-0 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas State

1-1 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

ISU -20.5

✓ ARST W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 39–19 ARST

✓ ISU (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -21.5

CloseISU -20.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -21.5

1 → ARST

CloseISU -20.5

1 pt toward Arkansas State

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -21.5 · closed ISU -20.5 · moved 1 toward ARSTmodel ISU -19.5

model ISU -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (178 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -21.5

CloseISU -20.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 20.5-point road favorite at ARST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 24–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.2 against an average line of 19; 57.8 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UNLV @ USU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-18.5	50–34	L	O67
Close	UAB @ LT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-18	37–27	L	O55.5
Close	TROY @ USM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	35–17	W	O48.5
Close	CLEM @ WAKE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	49–14	W	P63
Close	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	41–7	W	O45
Close	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	34–3	W	U55
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-21	41–16	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WWL	2-1	67%	—	1-1
ARST WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; ARST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
ARST OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ARST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ISU 1–0 ARST ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Arkansas State 7 @ Iowa State 52	ISU -18.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+7.6 →+7.1▼ 0.5#38

ARST−9.7 →−12.8▼ 3.1#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ISU

Longer bar = better

ARST

#64

Offense

◀ ISU better

#79

#48

Defense

◀ ISU better

#132

+0.7 #46

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

0.0 #71

66 plays #70

Pace

ARST faster ▶

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #56	40.0 #132	ISU
Yards / play	5.45 #86	7.83 #134	ISU
PPA / play	+0.26 #43	+0.37 #130	ISU
Success rate	43% #70	52% #132	ISU

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	ARST off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #71	13.7 #43	ISU
Yards / play	5.32 #91	4.71 #61	ISU
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	−0.04 #44	ISU
Success rate	43% #69	35% #43	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 59 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	9.0 #18	6.7 #40	15.7 #36	7.0 #29	9.0 #22	16.0 #22
ARST allowed	17.5	5.0	22.5	7.0	10.5	17.5

ARST scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	7.0	14.0	21.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
ISU allowed	2.3 #14	5.7 #21	8.0 #19	1.0 #6	4.7 #26	5.7 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.