Memphis @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Troy

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

2-0 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

Troy

1-1 · Power #99

final

Closing spread

MEM -4.5

✓ MEM W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 29–24 TROY

✓ MEM (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -6.5

CloseMEM -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -6.5

2 → TROY

CloseMEM -4.5

2 pts toward Troy

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -6.5 · closed MEM -4.5 · moved 2 toward TROYmodel MEM -6.5

model MEM -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 48% (97 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -6.5

CloseMEM -4.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 4.5-point road favorite at TROY, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 4.9; 52.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	JMU @ ODU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	35–32	W	O50.5
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	JMU @ CCU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-4	56–14	W	O50.5
Close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	13–23	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
TROY WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; TROY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UU	0-2	0%	2-0
TROY OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TROY	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MEM 2–0 TROY MEM leads · 2 games since 2024 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Troy 17 @ Memphis 38	MEM -18.5	MEM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+3.4▲ 1.2#55

TROY−7.1 →−4.7▲ 2.4#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MEM

Longer bar = better

TROY

#30

Offense

◀ MEM better

#79

#61

Defense

Even

#72

+1.0 #38

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

0.0 #81

61 plays #111

Pace

TROY faster ▶

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #32	23.5 #85	MEM
Yards / play	6.88 #31	5.28 #82	MEM
PPA / play	+0.33 #28	−0.03 #47	Even
Success rate	51% #29	40% #75	MEM

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #78	13.0 #39	MEM
Yards / play	5.47 #85	5.01 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.02 #60	MEM
Success rate	43% #71	38% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	10.5	12.0	22.5	12.0	7.0	19.0
TROY allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	12.0	5.0	17.0

TROY scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5	8.0	11.5	1.5	14.0	15.5
MEM allowed	4.5	5.0	9.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.