Louisiana @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri

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Louisiana

1-1 · Power #114

final

Final

Missouri

2-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -27.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 11–38 MIZ

✓ MIZ (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -22.5

CloseMIZ -27.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -22.5

5 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -27.5

5 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -22.5 · closed MIZ -27.5 · moved 5 toward MIZmodel MIZ -26.5

model MIZ -26.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–28.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 59% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -22.5

CloseMIZ -27.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 27.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 52–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.1 against an average line of 27; 45.5 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	LSU vs UNM 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31.5	38–0	W	U44
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	AUB vs SJSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-24	24–16	L	U48.5
Loose	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Loose	UTAH vs SDSU 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-22.5	35–7	W	U48.5
Loose	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Loose	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Loose	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Loose	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-25	10–31	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LW	1-1	50%	—	—
MIZ WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UU	0-2	0%	1-1
MIZ OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q2. Of 361 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−6.2▼ 3.6#89

MIZ+10.7 →+15.2▲ 4.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#102

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#19

#40

Defense

Even

#48

0.0 #85

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+1.0 #31

63 plays #99

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

78 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	UL off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #97	18.5 #61	MIZ
Yards / play	5.08 #99	4.33 #43	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	−0.03 #48	MIZ
Success rate	39% #106	35% #41	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	51.5 #12	12.0 #36	MIZ
Yards / play	7.45 #20	4.08 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #20	−0.10 #23	Even
Success rate	53% #23	40% #74	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 37 FBS teams

UL scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.0	6.5	11.5	3.0	8.5	11.5
MIZ allowed	10.5	0.0	10.5	1.5	6.5	8.0

MIZ scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.5	16.0	23.5	10.5	17.5	28.0
UL allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	1.5	0.0	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.