UTEP @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2025)

Sat, Sep 13, 2025, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff92°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-1 · Power #131

final

Final

Texas

1-1 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -40.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 3–44 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -36.5

CloseTEX -40.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -36.5

4 → TEX

CloseTEX -40.5

4 pts toward Texas

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -36.5 · closed TEX -40.5 · moved 4 toward TEXmodel TEX -44.5

model TEX -44.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 38.5–42.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 54% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -36.5

CloseTEX -40.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like TEX as a 40.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 27–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 6 similar games. 37 points stayed under 52.5, as in 3 of 6.

Favorite won

6 of 6100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39.5 against an average line of 38; 56.5 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LSU vs LT 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-36.5	23–7	L	U49.5
Loose	UGA vs MASS 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-42.5	59–21	L	O55.5
Loose	TA&M vs ULM 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-36.5	47–3	W	U53.5
Loose	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5
Loose	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
TEX LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UO	1-1	50%	1-1
TEX UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
TEX	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UTEP 0–7 TEX TEX leads · 7 games since 1930 · TEX has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−13.9▲ 2.0#120

TEX+23.2 →+23.7▲ 0.5#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTEP

Longer bar = better

TEX

#65

Offense

◀ UTEP better

#93

#76

Defense

TEX better ▶

#26

−0.5 #89

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.5 #58

63 plays #95

Pace

TEX faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	UTEP off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #66	10.5 #26	TEX
Yards / play	6.00 #68	3.78 #17	TEX
PPA / play	+0.24 #48	−0.27 #3	TEX
Success rate	42% #76	37% #59	Even

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #98	22.5 #78	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #61	5.34 #85	TEX
PPA / play	−0.08 #126	+0.05 #76	UTEP
Success rate	41% #88	38% #64	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 60 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	7.0	3.0	10.0
TEX allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

TEX scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.0	7.0	14.0	5.0	3.5	8.5
UTEP allowed	5.0	8.5	13.5	5.5	3.5	9.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.