San José State @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

San José State

0-1 · Power #106

final

Final

Texas

0-1 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -36.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 5–42 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -35.5

CloseTEX -36.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -35.5

1 → TEX

CloseTEX -36.5

1 pt toward Texas

Total

Open51.5

▲ 1

Close52.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -35.5 · closed TEX -36.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -39

model TEX -39

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 34.5–38.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -35.5

CloseTEX -36.5

Total51.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like TEX as a 36.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 38–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52.5, as in 0 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 55%

Went over

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 33 against an average line of 34.8; 67 points a game (usually 56). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	UGA vs MSST 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar total	-34	41–31	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
TEX L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU U	0-1	0%	0-1
TEX U	0-1	0%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
TEX	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−6.2 →−7.4▼ 1.2#99

TEX+23.2 →+24.4▲ 1.2#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SJSU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#94

Offense

Even

#105

#88

Defense

TEX better ▶

#48

−3.0 #130

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

−1.0 #107

69 plays #54

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	SJSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #105	14.0 #61	TEX
Yards / play	5.55 #75	3.76 #26	TEX
PPA / play	+0.03 #99	−0.02 #57	TEX
Success rate	38% #95	33% #46	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #129	16.0 #67	SJSU
Yards / play	5.01 #86	5.48 #95	Even
PPA / play	−0.24 #128	+0.13 #91	SJSU
Success rate	42% #75	44% #100	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.