Fresno State @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2025)

Sat, Sep 6, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

1-1 · Power #82

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

0-1 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

ORST -1.5

✓ FRES W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 24–25 ORST

✗ ORST (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -2.5

CloseORST -1.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -2.5

1 → FRES

CloseORST -1.5

1 pt toward Fresno State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -2.5 · closed ORST -1.5 · moved 1 toward FRESmodel ORST -1

model ORST -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (143 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (163 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -2.5

CloseORST -1.5

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 1.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 36–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.5; 45.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	ILL vs NEB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–20	L	U42
Close	NIU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-0.5	23–29	L	O44
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	14–41	L	O46.5
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Close	ARST vs ULM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–21	W	U51.5
Close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	15–14	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1
ORST L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UO	1-1	50%	1-1
ORST O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 290 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ORST	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.5 →−4.2▲ 0.3#83

ORST−5.2 →−5.4▼ 0.2#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

FRES

Longer bar = better

ORST

#62

Offense

◀ FRES better

#92

#107

Defense

Even

#100

−2.5 #128

Turnovers

Even

−2.0 #126

65 plays #79

Pace

◀ FRES faster

61 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #73	34.0 #119	FRES
Yards / play	5.72 #67	5.74 #102	FRES
PPA / play	+0.20 #59	+0.13 #93	FRES
Success rate	49% #48	40% #84	FRES

When ORST has the ball

Even matchup

	ORST off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #103	22.5 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #82	5.84 #105	ORST
PPA / play	−0.07 #113	+0.37 #122	Even
Success rate	43% #69	48% #111	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.